The A.M.A.N. Trove BC

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the A.M.A.N. Trove BC
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By soralin 2019-05-14 22:59:30
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Bahamut.Ravael said: »
soralin said: »
If they roll the dice a bunch of times and 6 comes up three times in a row they lose their mind, but the odds that you get a run of 6 5 times in a row when you roll a dice 100 times is EXTREMELY high.

I don't disagree with everything you said in your post, but this part is misleading. The probability of rolling a 6 on a die 5 times in a row in 100 rolls looks to be somewhere around 1%.

Sorry, I meant 4, you can even see I had '4' halfway through but the first couple were 5.

I meant 'get the number 5, 4 times', Ill fix my post a bit.
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By soralin 2019-05-14 23:04:05
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
If you assume the gold box to be identical to the rest, you'd want to open the gold box once you're down to 2 brown boxes (guaranteed box + prior loot beats 50% chance at 2 boxes due to lower variance, before even factoring the prior loot) and potentially even earlier if you value it higher.

And yea, the probability calculations are off on the dice rolls. Don't want to turn it into another huge argument though, most of what he's said this page was accurate and much more informed than the average poster/player.

Based on my revised numbers after actually sitting down and parsing my many hours of streams and the full list of my loot, I found the answer the 9th box to be worth opening:

https://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/52655/the-aman-trove-bc/48/#3431270

Basically, as far as my data showed, Thuds are straight up worthless. I originally had thought thuds were worth more than Noise, but as far as I have seen, Noises are worth a respectable amount and Thuds are worth basically 0 gil.

Nearly every single thud gave HTB items that were worthless, or Escha Zitah trash, or vagary trash.

As someone currently trying to get every piece of vagary gear into my inventory to test if it maximizes my odds of getting Tartarus Platemail (theoretically) from Vagary KI turn in, its not totally valueless to me when I get vagary drops, but I still valued it at 0 gil for the average player.

So even if you get 8 noises, the value of the 9th chest is still worth opening.
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2019-05-15 00:18:53
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soralin said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
soralin said: »
If they roll the dice a bunch of times and 6 comes up three times in a row they lose their mind, but the odds that you get a run of 6 5 times in a row when you roll a dice 100 times is EXTREMELY high.

I don't disagree with everything you said in your post, but this part is misleading. The probability of rolling a 6 on a die 5 times in a row in 100 rolls looks to be somewhere around 1%.

Sorry, I meant 4, you can even see I had '4' halfway through but the first couple were 5.

I meant 'get the number 5, 4 times', Ill fix my post a bit.

I mainly just found the use of "extremely high" in reference to low odds to be a tad awkward. The statistician in me just wanted to split hairs, so don't sweat it.
 Cerberus.Senkyuutai
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By Cerberus.Senkyuutai 2019-05-15 03:59:50
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Selling orbs isn't an option here, unfortunately. So I'll gladly get my 11th Nibiru Staff.
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 Asura.Tarquine
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By Asura.Tarquine 2019-05-15 07:02:46
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Cerberus.Senkyuutai said: »
Selling orbs isn't an option here, unfortunately. So I'll gladly get my 11th Nibiru Staff.

6.6 Vouchers at the AMAN Reclaimer! thats nearly 7,000 sparks!! IMAGINE THE POSSIBILITIES!
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By Cerberus.Senkyuutai 2019-05-15 08:31:15
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Asura.Tarquine said: »
Cerberus.Senkyuutai said: »
Selling orbs isn't an option here, unfortunately. So I'll gladly get my 11th Nibiru Staff.

6.6 Vouchers at the AMAN Reclaimer! thats nearly 7,000 sparks!! IMAGINE THE POSSIBILITIES!
BOY, IT BEGINS!

I've legit never gotten anything from AMAN that I have actually put to use. I'd be happy if I got anything I can actually edit ANY set with.
I haven't done this month yet, hope lady luck is hearing me.
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2019-05-15 08:58:33
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soralin said: »
So even if you get 8 noises, the value of the 9th chest is still worth opening.

You're misunderstanding. You have 2 equal probability outcomes at the 9th brown chest:

Correct - Keep your 8 noises, get a 9th unknown, and get the gold chest(10th unknown).

Incorrect - You get nothing.

Exiting gets you a 9th unknown, and keeps your 8 noises. Guessing gives you a 50/50 chance at 2 unknowns vs nothing. Thus, if you assume the final gold chest to be similar to the brown chests, you're taking even odds for 0 chests vs 2 (which is fair), but also risking your 8 noises in the process. The smart move is to take the guaranteed 1 chest and keep your noises at that point.

tldr; Your value isn't just your opened noises, it's your opened noises + the unknown from the gold chest itself. If you forget to value the gold chest, then yes, it's worth opening the 9th. But with the gold chest's value set equal to any other chest, it is not.
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By tyalangan 2019-05-15 09:13:32
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I agree with Camb above but could take it one step further in that the Gold chest is more valuable (proving his point even more)than a brown chest when at 8 noises since it removes the chance of a mimic. 3/3 instead of 3/4.

With Venus orb it’s even stronger because, as I’ve seen in my new testing of only Gold with Venus, it does not include a noise drop (2/2). However, if Soralin’s Testing of the value of a noise is accurate then Gold Venus may actually be worse value than a gold Mars unless Omen body drop percentage is higher. I’m 0/45 (Went 1/100 with Mars) but this campaign should help boost my numbers to that of Mars orbs test.
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2019-05-15 09:17:39
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That isn't really relevant, since we're already looking at the mimic when assuming 2:0 vs 1.

But, we also don't know if the gold chest has higher odds than other chests of having a good result. It very well might, given how quickly you saw a body in your samples.
 Asura.Tarquine
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By Asura.Tarquine 2019-05-15 09:21:05
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
Exiting gets you a 9th unknown, and keeps your 8 noises. Guessing gives you a 50/50 chance at 2 unknowns vs nothing. Thus, if you assume the final gold chest to be similar to the brown chests, you're taking even odds for 0 chests vs 2 (which is fair), but also risking your 8 noises in the process. The smart move is to take the guaranteed 1 chest and keep your noises at that point.

This actually sounds like a slightly more complex version of the Monty Hall problem...
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2019-05-15 09:22:09
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Asura.Tarquine said: »
This actually sounds like a slightly more complex version of the Monty Hall problem...
It isn't, because an outside source isn't eliminating possibilities.

The reason monty hall results in a 2/3 chance is because you're looking at the entire process knowing the host will remove a wrong answer. In the Monty Hall problem, you will have better odds by switching because a switch will win provided your initial (1/3) choice was wrong. That gives you 2/3 odds.

This is entirely different, as it's all your choices, and the odds don't change.
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By clearlyamule 2019-05-15 09:33:08
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There's also the fact that Monty Hall is basically a discussion where it's more or less all or nothing while this is a discussion on keeping a bunch of something or risking all of it for a marginal but not exactly known increase
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By fonewear 2019-05-15 09:52:49
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There is a one in three chance that 2/3 of the people here can't do math.
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2019-05-15 10:01:39
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fonewear said: »
There is a one in three chance that 2/3 of the people here can't do math.

Why are you so threatened by people using concepts you don't understand? These type of comments add literally nothing to any thread, and they're all you tend to post in FFXI related threads. If you don't care to understand, why can't you just leave it alone?
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By eliroo 2019-05-15 10:04:12
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Those are actually pretty favorable odds of people knowing how to do math.
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By soralin 2019-05-15 10:40:06
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The value of the Gold Chest is indeed not included in my evaluations.

Id love to see some raw data on someone who strictly opened only the gold chest.
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By Odin.Botosi 2019-05-15 10:41:26
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Valorous Hose from Loud Thud. FML
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By eliroo 2019-05-15 10:49:52
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soralin said: »
The value of the Gold Chest is indeed not included in my evaluations.

Id love to see some raw data on someone who strictly opened only the gold chest.

Flip a couple of pages back. for Mars orb the gold chest has a ~12.5% chance to drop a piece of gear, Venus is 100%
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By fonewear 2019-05-15 10:51:56
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Using random numbers to determine how good you are at opening up a random chest. Definitely elite game content.


It's just an easy way of SE adding "content" cause the drop rate of Omen body is about 3.23434%
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2019-05-15 11:16:38
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eliroo said: »
Flip a couple of pages back. for Mars orb the gold chest has a ~12.5% chance to drop a piece of gear, Venus is 100%


There isn't anywhere near enough data in that post to conclude this. 4/4 is essentially nothing for a sample size, and 12/100 isn't much better. It didn't seperate good gear from bad gear either, though he did hit a nisroch in the initial 100.

It's well within bounds for it being a silent roll that's no different than other chests, but certainly could be different as well.
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By eliroo 2019-05-15 11:18:54
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12/100 is pretty damn good consider how often you can do it. You'd need a community experiment to do like 1000 and not many people are willing to risk their orbs.

I did a few Venus after that though and got an item 100% of the time.
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2019-05-15 11:20:32
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eliroo said: »
12/100 is pretty damn good consider how often you can do it. You'd need a community experiment to do like 1000 and not many people are willing to risk their orbs.

I'm not saying it isn't a good chunk for how often you can do it, but when you're trying to calculate results you can't base an adequate sample size on how difficult data collection is. 12/100 isn't enough to say it's 12%, it's not even enough to say it's between 9 and 15%.

7/7 or whatever isn't enough to say it's 100% either, and 'a few' means you probably didn't log any of it. 0.7% chance of going 7/7 at 50%. Almost 50% chance(47.8%) at going 7/7 at 90%. It likely is 100%(less likely on the 12%), but when you claim conclusions without adequate data you weaken your argument.
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By eliroo 2019-05-15 11:25:48
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
7/7 or whatever isn't enough to say it's 100% either, and 'a few' means you probably didn't log any of it. 0.7% chance of going 7/7 at 50%. Almost 50% chance(47.8%) at going 7/7 at 90%. It likely is 100%(less likely on the 12%), but when you claim conclusions without adequate data you weaken your argument.

Its certainly a stronger argument then "You don't have enough data".

Say what you want but someone did a test on it and posted results and for all we know those are the only results we have. They could be more accurate but until someone does it and adds more data points then those are the conclusions of the only test we have.
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By eliroo 2019-05-15 11:27:21
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Also you are literally arguing over me mentioning that someone did some tests when I was replying to this statement:

Quote:
Id love to see some raw data on someone who strictly opened only the gold chest.

Your pointless argument is just as bad, if not worse, than Fone's random memes.
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2019-05-15 11:34:20
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I didn't say the test wasn't relevant, I said it didn't show the gold box to be 12% gear or nail down the value of the box, which is what we are interested in.

It's certainly useful, but until it's combined with much more data it isn't enough to conclude anything significant from. And, since the guy's been continuing with gold box only, he likely has a lot more to add at this point.

It's not a pointless argument, because too many people don't understand that a sample is only a sample. If everyone here understood high school statistics, I wouldn't have to say it. Unfortunately, it seems like only Soralin(to an extent) and I do.
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By soralin 2019-05-15 11:36:35
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So those numbers look suspiciously a lot like the Gold Chest is just an 11th guaranteed 'not a mimic' chest.

Which actually does make this start to resemble the monty hall problem, since now we do have 1 guaranteed success chest on hand at all times.

If I assume opening the gold chest has approximately the same value of return on a mars orb run as opening any normal chest that is guaranteed to not be a mimic...

Then the optimal plan is to stop at 8/10 chests and open gold, opening the 9th chest is always a dumb choice.

It does not appear there are any cases where you don't want to open the 8th chest though.

A 50% chance at gaining 2 chests + 50% chance to lose everything is strictly worse than a 100% chance to gain 1 chest.

However, if the gold chest is worth more than a normal chest (IE its more likely to 'loud thud' items or whatever), then there may be cases where you want to stop at 7 chests.

But I will for now operate on the assumption Gold Chest is equal in value to successfully opening a normal chest.
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By Bahamut.Nebohh 2019-05-15 12:13:44
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Yay AMAN campaign! (Goes back to work).
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By Asura.Cladbolg 2019-05-16 05:43:53
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Got lucky with this today. No loud thuds. Previously had 3 loud thuds on 3 diff orbs with junk drops so i guess this makes up for it. I didn't know you can get OMEN body without loud thud.

Dragon Breastplate no thud/loudthud

Edit:Trying to figure out how to post picture directly lol.
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By Ragnarok.Haxetc 2019-05-16 06:05:10
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By Ragnarok.Haxetc 2019-05-16 06:09:14
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Don't know if the quality is bad because I'm on mobile but you just hit the picture looking icon and post the link
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