Su5 Weapon And Neck Synths Do You Need It

I know how shield synths work, I was interested if it's possible to desynth a HQ1 to recover "lost" materials since HQ2 is the real target and if not what the odds were between them and how that rolls into averaged cost. I have ~130M set aside for a Zomorrodnegar when / if one becomes available, was debating on using this method or not.

Wish you would of let me know I was setting on a blu su5 for about a month debating on selling it when I got a tell about it and sold it. I can do either try synthing for you or I can make one. Just msg me, with what you want.

This has been so fun watching..


Bonus Black friday deal
*FREE IONIS+COCONUT RUSK+HQ Crystal(Fire/Earth/Wind only)* Included

Buy 15 synths, get 1 free!!!!

Damn I’m missing the fun at work right now

To close the loop I would do the same for woodworking. Port windy usually means afk. Also, there is a guy that stays in escha ruann with a similar name. Be sure you get the right Sol if you are interested. If I'm afk I can usually see the /tell backlog.

*please note I am not the Auction house, please have materials ON hand and ready before asking for synths*

Anyone been getting any su5s or +2s today?

Just went 1/1 for su5 pup! That dude was very gracious tipper, appreciate it A.

Limpbiz runs a great service.
Took three tries (with minimal material loss), but he HQ2'd a Futhark Torque for me.
Stand up guy. Thanks again!

Did a few more synths for people and we got a Lotta happy buyers when you go 1/1 for a the 3 buyers! Grats fellas

Something good happening on asura...kudos

Awesome guy, went 1/1 on whm torque was happy as hell to tip the man. Highly recommended.

Good things occasionally do happen on Asura. Ask Namjib.

Still going at it. Popped out a pup su5 today for a guy , Gratz K

@Toralin: About how many of each mat would be a safe estimate to bring if shooting for a THF+2 neck or a Pangu? Wondering if I have enough mats to be worth taking a shot at getting a not-break. XD

you will of course get breaks, i found about 15 sets of mats gets you about 25 synths and usually 1 +2 (give or take that whole luck thing)

you basically need luck or youll spend more in mats than just buying on AH

It’s a game chance. You could be the lucky guy who gets their 1/1 or under 5 tries. Or be the guy who took 15 -20 tries. I’ve had both. But more of the lucky guys for me, 1/1 pup su5, 1/1 mnk, 1/15 pup, 1/1 run, 1/1 whm, 1/3 run, and 0/12 run, and 0/?? Rdm.

This opens ppls eyes when they do their own mats and realize 100M and 200M for su5/+2s is barely breaking even.

I went 0-10 synths without even 1 success. I spent more money in tries than if I would have bought from AH. Only saving grace was that I only lost about 60M because not everything broke.

I just had to quote this... The people I have helped have all been like *** I blew 90m and I have nothing? How do you guys make any money crafting lol

All these people think crafters getting rich at 80m for necks and 160m for weapons with some massive markup. It just ain't happening

Even without the 1m per synth, you're gambling. Sure, the odds are slightly in your favor, but with a sample size of a single +2 or Su5, you are very likely to come out worse than just buying it. After throwing in the 1m/synth, you very well may have worse odds than buying, depending on how picky you are on mat prices.

It's firmly in the category of not even close to "barely breaking even" there wouldn't be a hundred rostams made daily to "break even"

CMB is selling it at half price, I promise you he's not "breaking even"

Yeah I think we are all talking about normal crafting conditions, not any third party "hacks" people maybe using to increase output beyond what SE intended, whoever CMB is

Shame nobody understands variance, at all. I didn't say anything about breaking even or not as a crafter. If you do 1000 synths at an expected 20% profit margin, you'll almost certainly realize that 20% profit.

If you do 30 synths, pay an extra 30m in crafter fees, you have a pretty significant chance of not getting your item and being out way more than the item costs. Even aside from the 30m, when you only synth one you introduce a high degree of variance that can result in you being shafted.

This thread is not some sort of amazing deal to someone looking to get a single item. That does not mean you cannot profit with a shield, there's a big difference from aiming for a single item with a 1m/synth markup and synthing hundreds of them without it.

To put some slightly more specific numbers behind it, let's say the occurance rate is 1/25.

You have a 33.5% chance of getting it within 10 attempts.
You have a 56.8% chance of getting it within 20 attempts.
You have a 71.7% chance of getting it within 30 attempts.
You have a 80.5% chance of getting it within 40 attempts.

This means, if you assume HQ2 is about 1/25, roughly one in every 5 people who attempt to make one will need more than 40 synths to see it. This doesn't matter so much to a crafter, your good streaks offset your bad ones. But, to someone trying to target a specific item you are gambling.

Yes, there is a profit margin. You are gambling with the odds in your favor(though the 1m a synth does reduce the favor substantially). That does not mean variance can't or won't **** you in the ***.. you aren't going to do another 500 synths to balance it out, you're just losing if you fall in those numbers.

Would you sign for a car if you had an 80% chance of saving $5000 on the purchase price and a 20% chance of losing $18000 and getting nothing? Someone with huge cash in the bank would, someone on a paycheck would be an idiot to. It's the same principle.

I was talking about toralin saying "breaking even" which is flat out false. just so we're on the same page.

Oh, I know. Toralin and I have our back and forth, just wanted to illustrate that this thread is really not a deal. As much as people want to pretend they're doing the server a favor, 1m/synth with no risk on their part is a huge gain and the people buying into it are really not benefiting in any significant way.

People see a number like Toralin's 15 mats 25 synths thrown around and think 'oh, so I need 15ish mats', without realizing how much the variance in either direction actually is when you aren't doing it in bulk.

But they love to gamble. Simply letting them gamble is enough to get endorphins roaring.

That was me who said break even. That’s been my avg on crafting necks and weapons, over the long run. I’ve made money on necks, and lost my *** off on weapons. Sometimes I’m up and other times I’m down a lot, I’m at -500m deficit doing weapons. My records are 1/4 blu su5, 1/22 pup su5, then 3/12 for a jp pup su5, then a massive 1/92 rdm and only made the +1, then turned around a popped out mnk/pup/pup 1/1 for others, then 1/15 for another guy. And 0/12 for a buddy. I have given up doing weapons for myself. I guess over the long haul you’d make some profit but it ain’t much.

I’m not sure who the Rostam guy is ferritin or something but I’m not seeing how he profits at 150M. But it’s nice he keeps making them cuz price keeps dropping.

Not saying the money ain’t there but it varies ofc. But being in Goldsmithing there’s better things to craft for money but these do give you a rush when you do go on a lucky streak.

I made this thread not to think of it as a favor but more along the lines of making maybe 1 +2 in a batch then waiting for it to sell to be able to try more was very slow in production. I figured hell if ppl want these and are willing to try their own mats I’d be happy to do while being compensated. Ofc the house always has the edge but I don’t consider it me vs them. It’s just imo a nice way to test shield luck and supply the market without waiting on a select few who can make production to have the supplies.