In The Name Of Science, 100 Dial Key #Fo Results

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In the name of science, 100 Dial Key #Fo results
 Odin.Karizo
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By Odin.Karizo 2022-05-22 08:05:40
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 Siren.Kruel
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By Siren.Kruel 2022-05-22 12:09:46
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Thanks for the test.

I was thinking about testing it myself and see if heavy metal pouch rates were worth it, but ended up getting a bunch of standard dial keys instead, seems it was a good choice.
 Lakshmi.Avereith
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By Lakshmi.Avereith 2022-05-22 12:54:30
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There's 28 things (I think) the fo keys can give, and although half of them are pure trash, I think it's worth it over sp gobbie keys

But only because I would never be lucky enough to pull an o sash or new sroda stuff with sp gobbie keys
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By IGDC 2022-05-22 13:28:18
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Lakshmi.Avereith said: »
There's 28 things (I think) the fo keys can give, and although half of them are pure trash, I think it's worth it over so gobbie keys

But only because I would never be lucky enough to pull an o sash or new sroda stuff with sp gobbie keys

17

https://www.bg-wiki.com/ffxi/Dial_Key_Fo
 Lakshmi.Avereith
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By Lakshmi.Avereith 2022-05-22 13:40:32
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Aye, that's incomplete. I just counted what he had above
 Siren.Kruel
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By Siren.Kruel 2022-05-22 13:40:42
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IGDC said: »
Lakshmi.Avereith said: »
There's 28 things (I think) the fo keys can give, and although half of them are pure trash, I think it's worth it over so gobbie keys

But only because I would never be lucky enough to pull an o sash or new sroda stuff with sp gobbie keys

17

https://www.bg-wiki.com/ffxi/Dial_Key_Fo
The screenshots show 28 different items.

That bg-wiki page does not account for M1+M2, H1+2, etc. or the 2 types of each of plutons, beitetsu and boulders.

it's also missing frayed sack (Mel) and such.
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By IGDC 2022-05-22 13:58:21
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cool, someone have a bg account to update it?
 Lakshmi.Avereith
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By Lakshmi.Avereith 2022-05-31 23:46:12
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Just wanted to put this here from anniversary event totals in case anyone was interested in distributions. Just seems kinda rando to me, but I'm sure someone might like to see

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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2022-06-01 01:07:11
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Lakshmi.Avereith said: »
Just wanted to put this here from anniversary event totals in case anyone was interested in distributions. Just seems kinda rando to me, but I'm sure someone might like to see


Thanks for posting this. I have always thought that something was off about the way that this game handles "random" outputs in certain areas, and this is just more evidence of how arbitrarily weird it is.

To match the dataset of 28 items above, I ran simulations of 22660 random selections of the numbers 1 to 28, and the count of each number falls within the approximate range of 740-880 almost every time. However, in the Dial Key #Fo table we see an erratic distribution, and it's clear that there is not an equal chance of obtaining each item.

Off the top of my head, this suggests one of a couple different possibilities.

1. The items are intended to have an equal chance of being obtained, but there is something severely wrong with the way the game handles RNG and/or there are unknown confounding variables that severely skew the results.

2. One of the devs manually input all of the probabilities to be the way that they are and they are working as intended. This is fine in theory, it's just quite strange given that some items in the same product category have vastly different probabilities (e.g. Frayed Pouch (A) and (D)).
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 Lakshmi.Avereith
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By Lakshmi.Avereith 2022-06-01 09:10:19
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Yeah it's goofy. Die/residue/cotton/linen clearly run lower chance than pluton cases, bayld boxes, frayed sack (a), and frayed pouch (m1) in my sampling. Almost like they didn't want as many die/residue/Alex from them and just shoved some of their drop chance into into the other items, ha

Guess I should have noted the moon phase and direction I was facing! *oof*
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 Asura.Geriond
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By Asura.Geriond 2022-06-01 10:13:03
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Bahamut.Ravael said: »
1. The items are intended to have an equal chance of being obtained, but there is something severely wrong with the way the game handles RNG and/or there are unknown confounding variables that severely skew the results.
Maybe someone could record /random 10000 times (or whatever) and see if there are RNG problems in other parts of the game.
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2022-06-01 20:08:57
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Asura.Geriond said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
1. The items are intended to have an equal chance of being obtained, but there is something severely wrong with the way the game handles RNG and/or there are unknown confounding variables that severely skew the results.
Maybe someone could record /random 10000 times (or whatever) and see if there are RNG problems in other parts of ths time.

Been playing around with the numbers some more.

The more data points the better, but you could see some statistically significant differences between data sets with a much smaller sample. Even 1000 might be good enough based on the standard deviations that I'm seeing.
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By AegParm 2022-06-06 10:35:52
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very similar rng numbers as Ave
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