New HTBF Shinryu 2.0

Currently, no halo, no proc.

I see no reason to believe there would be a proc. They intentionally made this HTBF different from the abyssea counterpart by disallowing atma. No atma, no weaponskill proc hints, just a watered down fight with a grindy drop table.

We have no problems getting into the bcnm on our server Asurahaha >.> After 36 runs even more runs than when the 10 merit per fight happened we have been getting only ring/earring/ammo ***drops. Post your results below please.

21 10-merit runs previous Seen Weapon, Body, cloak, fully equipped 8 ppl with accessories.
36 30-merit runs - nothing but a accessories or nothing since almost everyone in our shell we take has the trash items

hrm im like 0/5 i think on vd

The only thing thats worse than this is Bonanza weapons it seems..

Those will probably be loot in a future event with somehow even worse acquisition rates…

Matching 3 numbers is a 1 in 1,000 chance, or a 0.1% drop rate. We've already seen that on a number of items.

Yeah, but its 0.1% chance once every 3 months, not something you can spam daily.

Highly doubt that. They had one interview when they suggested it's strictly designed for Bonanza content and only that. I guess they can change their mind, but probably not without some massive protest from JP community and I havent seen one yet.

The disconnect between SE and their playerbase seems to have no limit.

That doesn't change the fact that it's still 0.1% on every roll. If you roll 1000 times, you're not guaranteed to get the item since it's still only 0.1% for each roll, unaffected by the other rolls. The frequency has no bearing on the outcome unless the game has some additional function adjusting the chance based on frequency or repetition.

Ofc it doesnt change an outcome of every each roll, but doing something 500 times with 0.1% roll gives you WAY higher chances to get it across all 500 rolls total.

Gambler's bias

Edit 1:
It would be awesome if SE had added some manner of code to increase drop rates based on frequency/repetition without a "positive" or "best" scenario, but that seems largely dubious considering the cost of development and maintenance since the game would have to track and record data for every player × every item affected × number of attempts. The easiest way to resolve that would to be through the use of some manner of participation currency to purchase the item directly, which is where potpourri comes in, I guess.

Edit 2:
Found another situation for a ~0.1% drop rate. My experience so far with solo Sinister Reign fights put decanter drop rate less than 5%. With each NM dropping 4 items (5 in August's case), that puts the chance of getting a specific item at 25%, ignoring any items such as materials that would push that even lower. Assuming a 10% chance to get max augments, that 0.05 × 0.25 × 0.1, or 0.125% chance to get a specific max augmented item from the fights.

Gambler's fallacy is not in effect here, because Simon is talking about the combined odds of every run, not the odds of each individual run.

Doing 500 runs of a 0.1% chance drop gives you about a 40% chance of getting it, which is much greater than if you're only allowed to do it once.

Correct me if I'm wrong but nobody figured out the lillith mechanic, they had to tell us.

https://forum.square-enix.com/ffxi/threads/55939-Maiden-of-the-Dusk-High-Tier-Battlefield

That's an excellent example of the gambler's fallacy. Doing 500 runs of a 0.1% chance drop* gives you exactly 0.1% chance of getting it.

*If each roll is random and independent from one another.

Yeah, you have no idea what are you talking about.

Make it simpler, so you will understand it.
Take a coin, you have 50% to get Head in single throw right? Now throw it 10000000000000 times and tell me you still have 50% chance to get ONE head in those 10000000000000 throws. If you still don't get it, I don't know how to explain it better.

Gambler's fallacy is when you make 499 Kraken Club BCNM and you think you have more chance to get it from 500, than you get it from 1st. You don't, you have same chance on each individual roll, no matter how much you did. It's completely something else than chance for something that has 1% chance to occur, across 500 tries total.

Or maybe in game mechanic will be more clear. Imagine you have 30% crit rate. If you make 10000 hits, then chance for crit to happen ONCE is not 30% (it's probably around 99% or something, I don't want to count it now, exact % doesn't matter)

"you're not always gonna get lucky, but people who farm all the time get lucky more often"

Pretty sure you're just arguing over semantics and both people understand that 500 runs at 0.1% is a sum greater chance than 1 run at 0.1%.

As far as proc, we do know that Lilith was the last BC added and had a relatively vague mechanic to increase droprate. It is premature to say that there is no mechanic here. It might not be proc-related, it might be proc-style behavior with no visible animation, it might even be bugged and SE is unaware(wouldn't be the first time).

I hadn't even thought about that obvious point- people asking "has anyone procc'ed it?" when an easier question to ask that also gives us the answer we need is "has anyone seen a proc hint after ANY WS".

if P(drop)= .001, then the P(at least 1 drop in 500)= 1-P(no drops in 500)

= 1-(.999)^500
=1-.606
=39.4%

this is pretty basic stats, guy- invoking a buzzphrase without knowing what it really means doesn't make you a mathmagician

Is there a math formula to prove you are all nerds ?

No formula. It’s a constant.

There are no weaponskill proc hints. It's a different fight from the abyssea version. I've soloed it a few times on easy with my dancer, and on that level it doesn't even open/shut its wings or absorb damage, nor did it use its doom ability. There were some other mechanics that I think were in the original fight that got omitted as well.

I can't speak for whether or not it uses those mechanics on higher levels (I'm sure someone here will chime in with that info), but they obviously made this a unique fight. I got my crepuscular earring and ring just soloing on easy a couple times, and I'm probably not gonna spam it any further for the other stuff in the loot table. If the loot distribution is the same on all levels (which others have eluded to), then there isn't even that much incentive to do it on a harder modes with a group. The "fix" they applied last week only encourages killing it on lower difficulties, which will have the opposite effect of what they seemed to be going for (increased congestion because of soloers rather than reduced).

I'm pretty sure my experiences soloing E have had him go wings open/closed and a -DT is gained during those closed times. Might wanna see how your WSs perform because I see definite differences on SA/WS or TA/WS on THF in there between the two (R8 Vajra, so the boosts from those are very noticable...not that they aren't always on THF main) I also have only seen the doom move on D or higher, though.

Same experiences here on E regarding varying dmg on WS's and he does indeed doom starting on Normal.

Wings definitely happen on Easy and Doom definitely happens on Normal.

The probability of getting 9,999,999,999,999 tails and only 1 head is obviously not 50% because you're comparing data across a series and evaluating the distribution, not a single toss. That would be highly improbably because the statistical chance to get either result is 50% in fair coin, just like the probability of getting 1 critical hit and 9,999 non-critical hits is essentially 0 for any critical hit rate above 0. Depending on your definition of improbable, you'd have to do ~3,000+ rolls of a 1/1000 chance for it to become more improbable to not see a particular result in that list of results, upwards of 6,900 rolls to increase the probability to 99.9%.

The probability might increase, but that doesn't change the fact that there is still only 0.1% chance to get the item to drop. Yes, you have more chances to win the more times you play, but it's still only 0.1% chance each time, on several items in the game. That's the key point. I don't care about the distributions because having to invoke the law of large numbers is quite dissatisfactory when you look at the time it would take to do so. SE likes giving us terrible chances to get stuff, and 0.1% is a ridiculous drop rate that shouldn't even exist in the first place.

You're wrong, but Geriond phrased it poorly. What he meant to say is that after 500 runs, there is a 40% chance you obtained a .1% drop somewhere along the way.

Obligatory; all drop rates are 50%.

It either drops, or it doesn't. 50/50