Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

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Coronavirus death toll estimation USA
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By Viciouss 2020-06-04 22:42:17
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Shiva.Zerowone said: »
Well if you google pneumonia deaths 2020 it kind of changes the whole game. 2x the normal yearly average and we're only half way through the year.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Going to go with a 250k.

500k if you factor in the abnormally high amount of pneumonia deaths as potentially being misreported to keep Covid-19 death numbers down.

How can you live in LA and suck at Price is Right, Rooks clearly bid 250k.
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By Eboneezer 2020-06-04 23:14:08
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Ragnarok.Ozment said: »
I don't have to do ???. Your idiotic links are worthless.

Didn't think so.
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By Shiva.Zerowone 2020-06-04 23:17:28
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Viciouss said: »
Shiva.Zerowone said: »
Well if you google pneumonia deaths 2020 it kind of changes the whole game. 2x the normal yearly average and we're only half way through the year.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Going to go with a 250k.

500k if you factor in the abnormally high amount of pneumonia deaths as potentially being misreported to keep Covid-19 death numbers down.

How can you live in LA and suck at Price is Right, Rooks clearly bid 250k.

Im not doing a 1$ bid. That's cheating.
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By Ragnarok.Ozment 2020-06-04 23:20:10
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Eboneezer said: »
Ragnarok.Ozment said: »
I don't have to do ???. Your idiotic links are worthless.

Didn't think so.

In order to to think you have to have a thought. Did that happen for you?
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By Eboneezer 2020-06-04 23:27:39
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Ragnarok.Ozment said: »

In order to to think you have to have a thought. Did that happen for you?

Yep, i knew you were making an ignorant, baseless claim and couldn't back it up. I was correct.
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By 2020-06-05 03:06:37
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By Lakshmi.Byrth 2020-06-05 05:09:29
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obligatory "can't have a second outbreak if you don't stop the first" eddiemurphy.jpg


On a more serious note, nothing fundamental has changed about the virus or our ability to treat it. We're just giving up any hope of avoiding it and trusting individuals' wariness will control the demand for medical services.

In what is now the OP (I did not make this thread), I laid out two paths we might take. We are on the latter of the two paths now.
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By 2020-06-05 05:26:34
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By Voren 2020-06-05 06:35:44
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kreek said: »
So you think over a million by the end of the year?


On 04/08/2020 in 4th page of this thread:

Voren said: »
Considering the midwest hasn't been saturated yet, and the amount of people that are not listening to orders to stay at home, I'm going to estimate that we'll see 1 million (queue Doctor Evil).

18 years in law enforcement, I have zero faith in people. My estimate is a low-ball as well; I wouldn't be surprised to see 2~3 million deaths by Dec 31.
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By Lakshmi.Byrth 2020-06-05 06:36:15
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At this point it depends on the extent to which it is actually possible to re-open.

People shut ***down a lot faster and harder than anyone anticipated, largely before the official declarations of shutdown. It isn't clear that declaring the economy re-open will actually re-open the economy.

So I'm hoping to stay below 1 mil, but I think 200k is pretty optimistic.
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By 2020-06-05 07:13:20
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By volkom 2020-06-07 01:18:00
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https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/sns-nyt-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-20200605-mbljonusnbh7pjcyuqv2g5qpge-story.html

interesting stuff ~

Quote:
The studies, published in renowned scientific journals, produced astounding results and altered the course of research into the coronavirus pandemic.

One undercut President Donald Trump’s claim that certain antimalarial drugs cure COVID-19, the illness caused by the virus, concluding that the medications in fact were dangerous to patients. The other found that some blood pressure drugs did not increase the risk of COVID-19 and might even be protective.

Both studies were led by a professor at Harvard, and both depended on a huge international database of patient medical records that few experts had ever heard of.

But on Thursday, the studies were retracted by the scientific journals in which they had appeared, The New England Journal of Medicine and The Lancet, because the authors could not verify the data on which the results depended.

wonder if the drug could be beneficial. dunno why there were efforts suggesting the drug could kill you since trump made that comment that he's hopeful that the drug could help
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By Viciouss 2020-06-07 01:38:34
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It can cause heart problems among seniors, which is why I think Trump was lying about taking it.
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2020-06-07 01:39:54
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I have no opinion on the usage of hydroxychloroquine. I’m not a doctor and won’t pretend to be one on the internet. That being said, it’s pretty sad how so many people in and out of scientific fields will just blindly accept the findings of “experts” without proper verification of the underlying data. It gives me hope to see studies get red-flagged from time to time, because at least that means someone was actually doing their homework.
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By volkom 2020-06-07 02:18:48
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Viciouss said: »
It can cause heart problems among seniors, which is why I think Trump was lying about taking it.

and a lot of other medications don't have potentially severe side effects?
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By 2020-06-07 02:23:38
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By Valefor.Commodus 2020-06-07 07:42:36
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Remember when you clowns were hyperventilating and claiming tens of millions would die this year alone? Demanding that the whole world stay locked down in their dad’s basement with you because poopy pants scared of bad orange man virus. Lol those were the days. Now the desperate backpedaling and trying to pretend anyone takes you seriously.

Also aspirin has like 200 potential side effects and some are life-threatening.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-06-07 08:22:11
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Valefor.Commodus said: »
Remember when you clowns were hyperventilating and claiming tens of millions would die this year alone? Demanding that the whole world stay locked down in their dad’s basement with you because poopy pants scared of bad orange man virus. Lol those were the days. Now the desperate backpedaling and trying to pretend anyone takes you seriously.

Also aspirin has like 200 potential side effects and some are life-threatening.

literally never happened. reported.
 
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By 2020-06-07 10:40:22
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By Shiva.Zerowone 2020-06-07 11:20:16
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kreek said: »
200k extra deaths this year will be hit for sure, but probably not much more.

I would like to believe this but 2 weeks ago we hit 100k and this past week we in the US added another 10k.

We’re also seeing the spikes in new cases occurring at exactly 2-3 weeks after re-opening.

If this trend continues we could easily be at 200-300k by September. That’s not factoring exponential spreading which unfortunately would put us up around 1M.
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By Asura.Saevel 2020-06-07 11:25:01
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Valefor.Commodus said: »
Remember when you clowns were hyperventilating and claiming tens of millions would die this year alone? Demanding that the whole world stay locked down in their dad’s basement with you because poopy pants scared of bad orange man virus. Lol those were the days. Now the desperate backpedaling and trying to pretend anyone takes you seriously.

Also aspirin has like 200 potential side effects and some are life-threatening.

Well remember protesting and rioting make you immune to COVID-19 according to Democrats.
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By Viciouss 2020-06-07 11:31:59
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volkom said: »
Viciouss said: »
It can cause heart problems among seniors, which is why I think Trump was lying about taking it.

and a lot of other medications don't have potentially severe side effects?

Which is why there are clinical trials that take up to a year or more.
 
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By 2020-06-07 11:44:10
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By Lakshmi.Byrth 2020-06-07 11:49:42
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I think the biggest problem is going to be that public health policy has been politicized. A second shutdown won't be politically possible in red states and people move around.

***is going to be wild in July/August.
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By Lakshmi.Byrth 2020-06-07 11:50:30
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Go cut your hair short now.
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By 2020-06-07 11:50:34
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By volkom 2020-06-07 12:18:45
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Viciouss said: »
volkom said: »
Viciouss said: »
It can cause heart problems among seniors, which is why I think Trump was lying about taking it.

and a lot of other medications don't have potentially severe side effects?

Which is why there are clinical trials that take up to a year or more.

right but the anti malaria drug has been used for like 60+ years. Its well known what the potentially adverse effects are. Just because Trump had info provided to him and he says he's hopeful that the drug could work shouldn't spark and outcry along with the medical community immediately dismissing it's potential use. What makes it worse is that we get some studies being retracted that may have altered research into finding a vaccine or improving precautions against the disease. The medical research should go its course but it shouldn't be deluded by political bias of one party or another.
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By Lakshmi.Byrth 2020-06-07 12:23:41
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kreek said: »
Why then and not now?

If you were asking "Why July/August and not June?" then the answer is that even exponential curves take time. We will see an increase in cases in June to be sure, but July / August is when it will become so widespread in society that it becomes impossible to protect the vulnerable. That will be when we clear the greatest generation out of the nursing homes.
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By Viciouss 2020-06-07 12:51:57
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volkom said: »
Viciouss said: »
volkom said: »
Viciouss said: »
It can cause heart problems among seniors, which is why I think Trump was lying about taking it.

and a lot of other medications don't have potentially severe side effects?

Which is why there are clinical trials that take up to a year or more.

right but the anti malaria drug has been used for like 60+ years. Its well known what the potentially adverse effects are. Just because Trump had info provided to him and he says he's hopeful that the drug could work shouldn't spark and outcry along with the medical community immediately dismissing it's potential use. What makes it worse is that we get some studies being retracted that may have altered research into finding a vaccine or improving precautions against the disease. The medical research should go its course but it shouldn't be deluded by political bias of one party or another.

Expressing optimism is fine. Actually using the drug (when you don't even have covid) to try to prove a point is Loony Tunes mentality. Everything is fine! Boom, dead.
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By Viciouss 2020-06-07 12:55:06
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Lakshmi.Byrth said: »
I think the biggest problem is going to be that public health policy has been politicized. A second shutdown won't be politically possible in red states and people move around.

***is going to be wild in July/August.

Oh yeah, the country is gonna shut down again. I know the NBA has agreed to return on July 31, but I don't see it happening. Here in Texas we have been consistently adding 1k cases per day for weeks now. The Governor is just pretending everything is going fine.
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