Random Politics & Religion #26

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Random Politics & Religion #26
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 Lakshmi.Zerowone
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By Lakshmi.Zerowone 2017-08-03 23:33:18
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Yeah anonymity is for losers.
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2017-08-04 00:45:06
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Lakshmi.Zerowone said: »
You should probably ask the resident statistician how often grand juries don't return with an indictment.

Lighting the Stat Signal is a bad idea.

Lakshmi.Zerowone said: »
One is always welcome to do the actual research. But you don't really have to since it's available to the public.

2011: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fjs11st.pdf , 193k cases, 22 no true bills.

2012: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fjs12st.pdf, 196k cases, 14 no true bill

2013: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fjs13st.pdf 197k cases, 5 no true bill

1999: https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cfjs99.pdf 114k cases, 35 no true bill

Feel free to take a look at bjs.gov if you think the years are being cherry picked.

No stats knowledge needed for this. It's mostly (un)common sense and little bit of legal knowledge. Grand juries are all prosecution, rarely any defense, allow hearsay, and only require a majority to indict. They don't determine guilt. They only determine whether a prosecution has enough evidence to take the case to trial. Unless the prosecutor's a moron who came unprepared, of course you're going to see a small number of no true bills in federal cases.

Now that we've covered that little tidbit of knowledge, guess what? None of this guarantees that Mueller will bring charges. While you may or may not have cherry picked your dates, you did cherry pick your facts. Take 2011 for example. Yeah, you've got your 22 no true bills, but you also have your 30,412 total declinations.

And at the end of the day, what will you likely have? Maybe an indictment against Flynn. Maybe one or two other court jesters. Meanwhile, Trump will likely remain untouched, will probably just issue pardons, and you'll be left with... let's see... a tired campaign issue that Trump's base doesn't care about, further evidence of a two-tiered justice system that can be used as voter fuel, and no impeachment in sight.

Here, have a gold star sticker. You've earned it, sport.
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2017-08-04 00:54:38
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And while I'm here....

Garuda.Chanti said: »
Another bipartisan looggie in Trump's eye.
Garuda.Chanti said: »
Two bipartisan pairs of senators unveiled legislation Thursday to prevent President Trump from firing special counsel Robert S. Mueller III without cause — or at least a reason good enough to convince a panel of federal judges.

Congratulations. You once again got your hopes up over a couple of proposals from King RINO and a sidekick, because apparently "bipartisan" is now used as nothing more than a buzzword to get Democrats' hopes up for a measure that may never see the light of day in a Republican-controlled Congress.

You can have a gold star sticker too.
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 Lakshmi.Zerowone
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By Lakshmi.Zerowone 2017-08-04 07:44:29
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Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Take 2011 for example. Yeah, you've got your 22 no true bills, but you also have your 30,412 total declinations.

That's still 85%. You're trying to argue that 15% being declinations is enough for you to feel there is still nothing.

While we don't know who this potential indictment is for, since these guys work slow and pick off the lessers first. Trumps personal issue will eventually be tied into attempting to cover up the whole mess.

It's fun to watch you guys pretend nothing is happening or will happen.
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By Nausi 2017-08-04 08:50:55
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Asura.Kingnobody said: »
Keep dreaming.

They don't have anything at all. Everyone knows that.

How can you convict a man based on no evidence, nor a crime occurred?

It's almost like you liberals want to destroy civilization because you lost an election. Stop acting like spoiled children and get over it.
They are liberals, they don't care about the law. Look at Hillary Clinton.
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By Nausi 2017-08-04 09:21:27
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Lakshmi.Zerowone said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
Take 2011 for example. Yeah, you've got your 22 no true bills, but you also have your 30,412 total declinations.

That's still 85%. You're trying to argue that 15% being declinations is enough for you to feel there is still nothing.

While we don't know who this potential indictment is for, since these guys work slow and pick off the lessers first. Trumps personal issue will eventually be tied into attempting to cover up the whole mess.

It's fun to watch you guys pretend nothing is happening or will happen.

Bro, this issues never hand any legs, they started putting it together the day after Hillary lost. They're strategy consists of making the biggest boogieman they can. This is why this stuff is being strategicly leaked like this. To attack attack attack.

Trump supporters know this is a witch hunt. Do you think any even if the establishment flips all the headlines to say "guilty", his supoorters are just gonna pack it in?

Its obvious to anyone not entirely drunk on koolaid whats going on here.
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 Asura.Saevel
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By Asura.Saevel 2017-08-04 09:26:45
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Bahamut.Ravael said: »
No stats knowledge needed for this. It's mostly (un)common sense and little bit of legal knowledge. Grand juries are all prosecution, rarely any defense, allow hearsay, and only require a majority to indict. They don't determine guilt. They only determine whether a prosecution has enough evidence to take the case to trial. Unless the prosecutor's a moron who came unprepared, of course you're going to see a small number of no true bills in federal cases.

Wait...

Did they seriously confuse Grand Jury's with actual convictions?
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 Lakshmi.Zerowone
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By Lakshmi.Zerowone 2017-08-04 10:07:30
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Asura.Saevel said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
No stats knowledge needed for this. It's mostly (un)common sense and little bit of legal knowledge. Grand juries are all prosecution, rarely any defense, allow hearsay, and only require a majority to indict. They don't determine guilt. They only determine whether a prosecution has enough evidence to take the case to trial. Unless the prosecutor's a moron who came unprepared, of course you're going to see a small number of no true bills in federal cases.

Wait...

Did they seriously confuse Grand Jury's with actual convictions?

No but it looks like you're trying to make that your new narrative.

The fact it's gone to a grand jury means the narrative "it's a hoax", no longer has legs.
 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2017-08-04 10:22:01
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Lakshmi.Zerowone said: »
Asura.Saevel said: »
Bahamut.Ravael said: »
No stats knowledge needed for this. It's mostly (un)common sense and little bit of legal knowledge. Grand juries are all prosecution, rarely any defense, allow hearsay, and only require a majority to indict. They don't determine guilt. They only determine whether a prosecution has enough evidence to take the case to trial. Unless the prosecutor's a moron who came unprepared, of course you're going to see a small number of no true bills in federal cases.

Wait...

Did they seriously confuse Grand Jury's with actual convictions?

No but it looks like you're trying to make that your new narrative.

The fact it's gone to a grand jury means the narrative "it's a hoax", no longer has legs.

The fact that it's gone to a grand jury is just routine. Prosecutors do this as a legal maneuver to gather evidence and question witnesses. There was already a grand jury convened in Alexandria on this case for some time and you haven't seen anybody indicted yet, have you? Trump's already guilty in your head based on the zero evidence that you have, but as much as you and CJ want to make mountains out of mole-hills not everything that happens in the investigation is a "Drumpf is done" moment.
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By Nausi 2017-08-04 10:22:34
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Funny part is that we dont KNOW what the grand dury is actually being conveined for. All we have is "reports".

Would be pretty funny if at the end of all this, mueller actually ends up indicting a handful of top democrats for their roles in the pissgate dossier.
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 Asura.Saevel
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By Asura.Saevel 2017-08-04 10:39:20
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Lakshmi.Zerowone said: »
The fact it's gone to a grand jury means the narrative "it's a hoax", no longer has legs.

Huh what...

That's not what Grand Juries are for or what they do or how their used...

As others have said this is just normal stuff. Turn off the cop shows, their all ***.
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 Asura.Saevel
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By Asura.Saevel 2017-08-04 10:53:22
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Anyhow there is nothing official right now, it's all "anonymous reports" from DNC moles who are carefully choosing what words to use.

As for what's really going on, this is about the DNC creating smoke cover to protect them from the upcoming 2018 elections and hopefully give them momentum into the 2020 elections. They are planning a stonewall tactic on President Trump just like the Republicans did to President Obama. Doing such a tactic is dangerous because congressmen in mixed area's are vulnerable to being ousted if enough of their voter base disliked what they are doing. This danger is why congressmen will sometimes vote across party lines. So we need a reason, it doesn't have to be legit it only needs to be functional, for the party members in contested states to vote with the party and not in line with their state. Enter "Obama is a Kenyan born Muslim radical" and "Trump is a greedy Russian plant". Both are complete *** and the most cursory examination will prove it, yet they both have just enough truth to them, Obama's family coming from Kenya and Trump having previously worked with Russian business interests, that they can be used as a political screen.

Thus it's the DNC's strategy to use Trumps previous Russian business dealings as a screen to shield their members from voter fallout after stonewalling and hamstringing the nation during the Trump Administration. Come the 2018 elections they can hopefully prevent more seats from being lost to Republicans and if their lucky enough nab a few Republican seats in places were they can stir up anti-Trump dissent.
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By Nausi 2017-08-04 11:05:05
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Meanwhile the winning keeps on happening. Stocks up, labor force participation up, unemployment down, regulations slashed, illegal immigration down,

Gonna be too big to cover up come November 2018.
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By Blazed1979 2017-08-04 15:49:50
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Nausi said: »
Meanwhile the winning keeps on happening. Stocks up, labor force participation up, unemployment down, regulations slashed, illegal immigration down,
You forgot closer to zombie apocalypse and the return of Cthulu.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2017-08-04 15:56:44
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Blazed1979 said: »
Nausi said: »
Meanwhile the winning keeps on happening. Stocks up, labor force participation up, unemployment down, regulations slashed, illegal immigration down,
You forgot closer to zombie apocalypse and the return of Cthulu.
Much closer.

Didn't they finally make it possible to have designer babies?

Sure, they say it's to fix defects before the kid is born, and if it will forever be only for that, then more power to this procedure.

But let's be honest here. People are going to abuse the hell out of this. I give it 50 years before people start selecting eye color, skin pigmentation, and hair color.
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By Blazed1979 2017-08-04 16:24:08
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Asura.Kingnobody said: »
50 years before people start selecting eye color, skin pigmentation, and hair color.
I'm 37. In my lifetime I've seen Betamax, VHS, Laser Discs, CDCs, DVDs, Blueray! That took 20 years. Designer Babies will take max 10. In 50 years we will be cloning our organs/bodies and transferring our brains into them. The only diseases we will have issues treating are those of the brain. We will be able to pick the talents of our children and even what ice cream flavor they like.
 Asura.Saevel
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By Asura.Saevel 2017-08-04 16:33:50
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Asura.Kingnobody said: »
I give it 50 years before people start selecting eye color, skin pigmentation, and hair color.

Oh if only it would stop there, but it won't. Half our personality and most of our mental and athletic abilities are inherited from our parents. Wealthy families will be able to ensure their children are smarter, healthier and stronger then normal children. Those children will learn everything faster and be capable of achieving far more then regular kids and thus further defining society into "haves" and "have not's".
 Cerberus.Pleebo
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By Cerberus.Pleebo 2017-08-04 17:18:26
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We can't even identify all the genes controlling something as complex as intelligence. Even those for eye color need more research. 50 years is being optimistic. Just not going to happen in 10 considering the inevitable ethical and legal battles and necessary clinical trials, if it ever gets that far.
 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2017-08-04 17:20:30
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Let me ask you this then Pleebs.

Now that we have the ability to control genes, even though we don't have the capability to do so currently, but in the near(ish) future, do you see this being abused? If so, how many years when it starts being abused?
 Cerberus.Pleebo
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By Cerberus.Pleebo 2017-08-04 17:39:45
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If you're talking about designer babies and germline editing, I don't see the current heavy restrictions on it here in the US being lifted or changed. There's such an outcry here over what happens to embryos from an ethical standpoint that it would take a huge cultural shift to change perceptions widely enough. I actually think when we do reach that point, the practice will be banned (like it is in most of the rest of the world) except for very specific cases related to genetic diseases.
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2017-08-04 17:42:22
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I agree with you that the specific cases such as genetic diseases should receive this type of treatment.

I think that there will be cases of genetic manipulation in regards to designer babies.

Will it be legal? No.
Will it occur? Yes.
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 Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2017-08-04 18:19:41
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Candlejack said: »
Blazed1979 said: »
Nausi said: »
Meanwhile the winning keeps on happening. Stocks up, labor force participation up, unemployment down, regulations slashed, illegal immigration down,
You forgot closer to zombie apocalypse and the return of Cthulu.
I wonder if Nausi realizes the country is still running under Obama's final Economic Policies until October. All that "good stuff" he mentioned is THANKS TO OBAMA. Trump had nothing to do with any of it.

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 Odin.Slore
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By Odin.Slore 2017-08-04 19:58:17
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Candlejack said: »
Blazed1979 said: »
Nausi said: »
Meanwhile the winning keeps on happening. Stocks up, labor force participation up, unemployment down, regulations slashed, illegal immigration down,
You forgot closer to zombie apocalypse and the return of Cthulu.
I wonder if Nausi realizes the country is still running under Obama's final Economic Policies until October. All that "good stuff" he mentioned is THANKS TO OBAMA. Trump had nothing to do with any of it.

Technically your right. With Obama being gone consumer confidence is high.
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 Asura.Kingnobody
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By Asura.Kingnobody 2017-08-04 20:12:38
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Ehh, he wouldn't figure it out anyway Slore.

He thinks that Bush created ISIS, with the help of Trump and the Russians. Him and Vic....
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By Nausi 2017-08-04 22:34:39
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Obama set his economic policies on a delayed boom that happened exactly when trump was elected.

The man was a goddamn genius.
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By Garuda.Chanti 2017-08-04 22:35:17
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Asura.Kingnobody said: »
...
But let's be honest here. People are going to abuse the hell out of this. I give it 50 years before people start selecting eye color, skin pigmentation, and hair color.
50 YEARS?

King in 50 months the Chineese will be engnering super babies.
 Garuda.Chanti
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By Garuda.Chanti 2017-08-04 22:38:18
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Cerberus.Pleebo said: »
We can't even identify all the genes controlling something as complex as intelligence....
Oh? A cluster of genes that control intelligence was reported in a paper this year.
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By Viciouss 2017-08-04 22:42:15
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Nausi said: »
Obama set his economic policies on a delayed boom that happened exactly when trump was elected.

The man was a goddamn genius.

There is no "boom." Labor participation is flat, job growth is flat, the market is up because the dollar is way, way down. Why is the dollar down nausi?
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By Garuda.Chanti 2017-08-04 22:44:14
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Odin.Slore said: »
Candlejack said: »
I wonder if Nausi realizes the country is still running under Obama's final Economic Policies until October. All that "good stuff" he mentioned is THANKS TO OBAMA. Trump had nothing to do with any of it.
Technically your right. With Obama being gone consumer confidence is high.
Nausi said: »
Obama set his economic policies on a delayed boom that happened exactly when trump was elected.

The man was a goddamn genius.
The increases in employment have been on a steady, rising slope for 16 months.

It has little to do with any president.
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