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The new Global Cooling thread.
Leviathan.Chaosx
Serveur: Leviathan
Game: FFXI
Posts: 20284
By Leviathan.Chaosx 2014-06-24 08:40:28
Bismarck.Bloodrose said: »Bismarck.Bloodrose said: »Honestly I think even the left have disowned Al Gore. Because they finally found the "Inconvenient Truth"?
I highly doubt thatBecause he's Super Cereal about everything. Especially Manbearpig.
And he's been discounted as a total loon for close to 20 years. How come he is still being praised by the left? Because of
1. They went full retard,
2. They have a financially vested interest (as do many proponents who politicize ANYTHING, not just climate change) in receiving funding, which eventually gets embezzled into other projects. Sometimes the only way to receive funding for other, more beneficial research,
3. I wanted to type something witty and clever, about not wanting to listen to dissenting opinions, but usually, it's already because of going full retard.
If there is an honest and open debate, both sides can agree, that there is still wasteful spending on proving/disproving climate change, and the effects it has on the various global ecologies and micro-ecologies which sustains the functions of the planet, and the species living on it.
Both sides, admittedly can agree that finding financially sound ways to keep the air and water (and thus our food sources) cleaner and healthier, is a good thing.
However, the biggest argument seen about global warming, coming from the "skeptics", and I use that quoted term loosely because the applicable group of people I am referring to, aren't actually skeptics that question the science, scientific method, or the general consensus, have also gone full retard. I say this, simply because the general referral happens to be "liberal this", "liberal that", or "liberal agenda keeping us in check", when really, any argument that starts off as an anti-political party rant, that doesn't even look at the science from their side, or more accurately, refuses to compare the science from both sides due to political affiliation, it isn't skepticism - it's HELP I AM TRAPPED IN 2006 PLEASE SEND A TIME MACHINE, and doesn't deserve to be part of the debate. Again, this also applies to both sides of the climate change argument.
There have been liberally affiliated scientists that have refused to be a part of the debate, because they don't believe in the scientific models, not the method, to test the theories being touted, as an accurate portrayal of the events, or believe there is no accurate model able to be designed by our current way of looking at climate change.
The closest analogy I could possibly give to global climate change, is this:
Take your house for example (yes it's a bad example, but humor me) freshly built, sufficiently insulated so no heat escapes, none gets in. Your ventilation system makes it so that the air continues to be fresh and filtered for years to come, assuming there are no unnecessary particles clogging or accumulating in the filtration system. All particles absorb thermal energy, that would be naturally found in the environment of your home. Of course, they would also reflect miniscule rays of light, and emit some of that thermal energy. Of course, each increase in total surface area would increase the amount of thermal energy being emitted into the environment as well. So it's not necessarily about the particular gas itself, but the concentration of particles absorbing, and re-emitting that stored energy in a greater surface area. Some green house gases, or emissions, have a higher amount of particles found within them. As it builds up, and the filter clogs, your home begins to smell less... fresh. Contaminated even. Of course, in a home, it's much easier to clean, or change the filter, than say that of the Ozone layer of the planet, or the re-planting of trees being cut down annually for human progress.
Add in "industrial toxins", as it were, in this case, we'll scale it down to cigarette smoke as a comparison (you don't actually have to smoke to see where I'm going with this.) there are 108 different chemicals in cigarettes, that are designed pollutants to your lungs, so we'll use that to represent, say, 108 different chemical pollutants in the air. They get mixed together in the air, combining the particle surface that absorbs heat, as well as poisons the air, which poisons the natural filter (clogging it), and contaminates the local fauna and plant life, reducing their life expectancy, and their ability to provide sustenance and impeding their ability to filter the air. The increase in particles that absorb and/or emit heat, will change the climate - it with either become colder in one area, and warmer in another, colder over-all, or warmer over-all.
Now, puncture a hole, or wear and tear happens as the house gets older, and suffers from the long term abuse of collective pollutants in a single area, causing deterioration in the insulating membrane (this could be windows, insulation, crumbling foundation, etc.) and it opens things up to an incredible amount of other factors to consider, in how the climate changes, and affects those dwelling in the environment. It's posts like this that makes me want to go back to work....
Although your analogies aren't flawed, and it is overall a good post, holy wall of text Batman! Posts like that make me want to smoke a lot of crack and fire nuclear warheads sporadically throughout the world just to shake things up a bit.
Unfortunately my 'specialty' is in defense, so for some reason I got to prevent the things I want to do. Go figure.
Bismarck.Bloodrose
Serveur: Bismarck
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4322
By Bismarck.Bloodrose 2014-06-24 08:41:13
Bismarck.Bloodrose said: »Bismarck.Bloodrose said: »Honestly I think even the left have disowned Al Gore. Because they finally found the "Inconvenient Truth"?
I highly doubt thatBecause he's Super Cereal about everything. Especially Manbearpig.
And he's been discounted as a total loon for close to 20 years. How come he is still being praised by the left? Because of
1. They went full retard,
2. They have a financially vested interest (as do many proponents who politicize ANYTHING, not just climate change) in receiving funding, which eventually gets embezzled into other projects. Sometimes the only way to receive funding for other, more beneficial research,
3. I wanted to type something witty and clever, about not wanting to listen to dissenting opinions, but usually, it's already because of going full retard.
If there is an honest and open debate, both sides can agree, that there is still wasteful spending on proving/disproving climate change, and the effects it has on the various global ecologies and micro-ecologies which sustains the functions of the planet, and the species living on it.
Both sides, admittedly can agree that finding financially sound ways to keep the air and water (and thus our food sources) cleaner and healthier, is a good thing.
However, the biggest argument seen about global warming, coming from the "skeptics", and I use that quoted term loosely because the applicable group of people I am referring to, aren't actually skeptics that question the science, scientific method, or the general consensus, have also gone full retard. I say this, simply because the general referral happens to be "liberal this", "liberal that", or "liberal agenda keeping us in check", when really, any argument that starts off as an anti-political party rant, that doesn't even look at the science from their side, or more accurately, refuses to compare the science from both sides due to political affiliation, it isn't skepticism - it's HELP I AM TRAPPED IN 2006 PLEASE SEND A TIME MACHINE, and doesn't deserve to be part of the debate. Again, this also applies to both sides of the climate change argument.
There have been liberally affiliated scientists that have refused to be a part of the debate, because they don't believe in the scientific models, not the method, to test the theories being touted, as an accurate portrayal of the events, or believe there is no accurate model able to be designed by our current way of looking at climate change.
The closest analogy I could possibly give to global climate change, is this:
Take your house for example (yes it's a bad example, but humor me) freshly built, sufficiently insulated so no heat escapes, none gets in. Your ventilation system makes it so that the air continues to be fresh and filtered for years to come, assuming there are no unnecessary particles clogging or accumulating in the filtration system. All particles absorb thermal energy, that would be naturally found in the environment of your home. Of course, they would also reflect miniscule rays of light, and emit some of that thermal energy. Of course, each increase in total surface area would increase the amount of thermal energy being emitted into the environment as well. So it's not necessarily about the particular gas itself, but the concentration of particles absorbing, and re-emitting that stored energy in a greater surface area. Some green house gases, or emissions, have a higher amount of particles found within them. As it builds up, and the filter clogs, your home begins to smell less... fresh. Contaminated even. Of course, in a home, it's much easier to clean, or change the filter, than say that of the Ozone layer of the planet, or the re-planting of trees being cut down annually for human progress.
Add in "industrial toxins", as it were, in this case, we'll scale it down to cigarette smoke as a comparison (you don't actually have to smoke to see where I'm going with this.) there are 108 different chemicals in cigarettes, that are designed pollutants to your lungs, so we'll use that to represent, say, 108 different chemical pollutants in the air. They get mixed together in the air, combining the particle surface that absorbs heat, as well as poisons the air, which poisons the natural filter (clogging it), and contaminates the local fauna and plant life, reducing their life expectancy, and their ability to provide sustenance and impeding their ability to filter the air. The increase in particles that absorb and/or emit heat, will change the climate - it with either become colder in one area, and warmer in another, colder over-all, or warmer over-all.
Now, puncture a hole, or wear and tear happens as the house gets older, and suffers from the long term abuse of collective pollutants in a single area, causing deterioration in the insulating membrane (this could be windows, insulation, crumbling foundation, etc.) and it opens things up to an incredible amount of other factors to consider, in how the climate changes, and affects those dwelling in the environment. It's posts like this that makes me want to go back to work....
Although your analogies aren't flawed, and it is overall a good post, holy wall of text Batman! The analogy is good, again, why I chose it, is because it's the closest I feel that portrays what's happening. However, if one were to build a scientific model out of this, it would be inherently flawed, most importantly, due to the massive difference in scale.
Also, that might be the best compliment I have received from someone I normally disagree with.
Bahamut.Kara
Serveur: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3544
By Bahamut.Kara 2014-06-24 09:32:59
This is a good example of why we need to have have students test hypothesis and write up scientific reports. So people have an understanding of why something is done. Then maybe a conversation can occur about specific methods rather than not understanding the background.
Anyone who has handled raw data (especially large data sets) or taken a statistics course knows that you examine and "clean" raw data for issues. Depending on the data, where it comes from, and the time interval you may "normalize" it and/or discard some of it for various reasons.
data cleaning
Ragnarok.Nausi
Serveur: Ragnarok
Game: FFXI
Posts: 6709
By Ragnarok.Nausi 2014-06-24 09:51:02
Alarmist can't handle the truth, could global warming have really been a scam that they've simply fallen for?
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Bismarck.Ramyrez
Serveur: Bismarck
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4746
By Bismarck.Ramyrez 2014-06-24 09:52:25
Alarmist can't handle the truth, could global warming have really been a scam that they've simply fallen for?
No.
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VIP
Serveur: Odin
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9534
By Odin.Jassik 2014-06-24 09:53:14
Alarmist can't handle the truth, could global warming have really been a scam that they've simply fallen for?
Or someone with little to no scientific literacy feels qualified to debunk science while succeeding only in looking like a jackass to everyone around them...
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Ragnarok.Nausi
Serveur: Ragnarok
Game: FFXI
Posts: 6709
By Ragnarok.Nausi 2014-06-24 10:04:21
Welp, looks like the campaign to discredit by fiat is already well underway.
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Serveur: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 34187
By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-06-24 10:06:51
Welp, looks like the campaign to discredit by fiat is already well underway. That is the only defense.
Although data scrubbing has it's merits, that doesn't mean that data needs to be scrubbed to the point of changing the results to suit one's needs or wants.
By Altimaomega 2014-06-24 10:47:05
So controlling CO2 emissions is nothing but a scam to suck money from industry to rich politicians?
Alarmist can't handle the truth, could global warming have really been a scam that they've simply fallen for?
No.
Why do you +1 Chaos but say no to Nausi?
Serveur: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 34187
By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-06-24 10:48:46
The rate up system is pointless anyway.
By Altimaomega 2014-06-24 10:51:34
Welp, looks like the campaign to discredit by fiat is already well underway. That is the only defense.
Although data scrubbing has it's merits, that doesn't mean that data needs to be scrubbed to the point of changing the results to suit one's needs or wants.
Its the only card they have to play. Unless you lived in New Orleans the climate/weather isn't racist and Manbearpig overrides Bush did it..
By Altimaomega 2014-06-24 10:53:53
The rate up system is pointless anyway.
Yea I just find it hard to understand ramyrez viewpoints at times because he takes both sides or hangs in the middle a lot.
Serveur: Excalibur
Game: FFXIV
Posts: 6427
By Grumpy Cat 2014-06-24 10:56:24
US is cooling down? This heat rash on my balls says otherwise.
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By Altimaomega 2014-06-24 10:58:28
US is cooling down? This heat rash on my balls says otherwise.
Put bleach on it, problem solved.
Ragnarok.Nausi
Serveur: Ragnarok
Game: FFXI
Posts: 6709
By Ragnarok.Nausi 2014-06-24 11:15:34
US is cooling down? This heat rash on my balls says otherwise.
I had that back in 03', I think FFXIAH owes you a moment of silence in observance of this awful affliction.....
Bismarck.Ramyrez
Serveur: Bismarck
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4746
By Bismarck.Ramyrez 2014-06-24 11:25:39
So controlling CO2 emissions is nothing but a scam to suck money from industry to rich politicians? Alarmist can't handle the truth, could global warming have really been a scam that they've simply fallen for? No. Why do you +1 Chaos but say no to Nausi?
Perhaps I misinterpreted Chaos' statement in this instance. He, like me, tends to float a bit at times.
The rate up system is pointless anyway. Yea I just find it hard to understand ramyrez viewpoints at times because he takes both sides or hangs in the middle a lot.
Both sides on this issue? Not really. I think I pretty clearly stated my feelings earlier. if I +1'ed something intended to support the ridiculous notions of the "conservatives" current holding office and fighting facts, I simply misinterpreted it as sarcasm or flippancy.
As for "both sides" in conservative vs. liberal? You'd better *** believe I won't side with either. I will pick and choose what seems right to me on issues; I can think for myself. Taking any hard line with an individual party is a choice for fools.
Serveur: Odin
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4013
By Odin.Godofgods 2014-06-24 11:32:31
the earth has before and will continue to heat up and cool down without human intervention at all. The End.
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Lakshmi.Saevel
Serveur: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
Posts: 2228
By Lakshmi.Saevel 2014-06-24 11:35:32
Haha I said that a long time ago. Those with an agenda have altered historical data in order to create the illusion of "unprecedented warming on a global scale". The historical information has been reviewed and you can read about it on other sites, that one just put together some graphs that illustrate the data manipulation.
The warming is not unprecedented, it's happened many times in the past with the Medieval Warming Period being the last big time. It's also cooled in the past, by just as much as it's warmed, the last time being the ice age we were in for the last 100~150 years that we are just now getting out of. The globe is indeed warming, very slowly, as is reflected by the solar cycle, we are leaving a small ice age. Most of the warming happened in the 80's and 90's and has since stalled out, we're at year 17 now of flat temperatures. We can expect it to start up again in another 5~10 years.
Anyhow, AGW has become a cult. It follows the same dogmatic fanatical mindset that defines a cult. There can be no reasoning with those convinced of it's inherent "rightness", they won't listen and will react in angry and violent ways if pressured. I just need to observe the reactions to people when presented with what should be a valid concern (past data being altered to support present theory). The possibility of the data being incorrect should be taken into considering a more measured discussion taking place. Instead well we get what's typical whenever a non-believer attempts to argue against a particular religion with a believer.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3qkf3bajd4
The whole video is a great watch, it illustrates exactly how to go about altering an entire culture and what was really going on during the cold war. The best parts start at 1:08:00 when Bezmenov goes into the mechanics of how you ideologically subvert an entire nation and how it's pretty much impossible to change those people once their thinking patterns have been set.
It never cease's to amaze me how much control the human subconscious has over the conscious. If you can subvert the subconscious and insert beliefs and rules into it, then you can sculpt the consciousness itself.
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Bahamut.Milamber
Serveur: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3691
By Bahamut.Milamber 2014-06-24 11:35:50
Um.
1. US != World
2. That blog doesn't provide any evidence of any tampering, or changes to data. That involves providing raw data and the comparing 'altered' data.
3. The steps for sanity checks given by Pleebo's links are straightforward and necessary checks when dealing with real systems, particularly given normal failure modes for sensors.
For example, if you have a sensor which suddenly reports 99,999 RPM for something which normally fluctuates between 0-60,000 RPM, that generally isn't valid information for that sensor, and indicates abnormal behavior of the sensor rather than the state of the system.
Bismarck.Ramyrez
Serveur: Bismarck
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4746
By Bismarck.Ramyrez 2014-06-24 11:36:55
the earth has before and will continue to heat up and cool down without human intervention at all.
True
Not so much. I mean, it will continue to happen with or without humans, that is true, but we're certainly helping it along on this particular cycle.
Which, frankly, the Earth -- were it to be sentient -- probably wouldn't give a ***about.
But again, I callback to my prior post. You'd think a bunch of people who profess to care about the well-being of their progency would consider this a real problem.
[+]
Serveur: Odin
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4013
By Odin.Godofgods 2014-06-24 11:40:45
the earth has before and will continue to heat up and cool down without human intervention at all.
True
Not so much. I mean, it will continue to happen with or without humans, that is true, but we're certainly helping it along on this particular cycle.
Which, frankly, the Earth -- were it to be sentient -- probably wouldn't give a ***about.
But again, I callback to my prior post. You'd think a bunch of people who profess to care about the well-being of their progency would consider this a real problem.
As ive posted many times before'
Quote: Besides, there is nothing wrong with the planet. Nothing wrong with the planet. The planet is fine. The PEOPLE are f***ed. Difference. Difference. The planet is fine. Compared to the people, the planet is doing great. Been here four and a half billion years. Did you ever think about the arithmetic? The planet has been here four and a half billion years. We’ve been here, what, a hundred thousand? Maybe two hundred thousand? And we’ve only been engaged in heavy industry for a little over two hundred years. Two hundred years versus four and a half billion. And we have the CONCEIT to think that somehow we’re a threat? That somehow we’re gonna put in jeopardy this beautiful little blue-green ball that’s just a-floatin’ around the sun?
The planet has been through a lot worse than us. Been through all kinds of things worse than us. Been through earthquakes, volcanoes, plate tectonics, continental drift, solar flares, sun spots, magnetic storms, the magnetic reversal of the poles…hundreds of thousands of years of bombardment by comets and asteroids and meteors, worldwide floods, tidal waves, worldwide fires, erosion, cosmic rays, recurring ice ages…And we think some plastic bags, and some aluminum cans are going to make a difference? The planet…the planet…the planet isn’t going anywhere. WE ARE! - George Carlin
Lakshmi.Saevel
Serveur: Lakshmi
Game: FFXI
Posts: 2228
By Lakshmi.Saevel 2014-06-24 11:46:23
Um.
1. US != World
2. That blog doesn't provide any evidence of any tampering, or changes to data. That involves providing raw data and the comparing 'altered' data.
3. The steps for sanity checks given by Pleebo's links are straightforward and necessary checks when dealing with real systems, particularly given normal failure modes for sensors.
For example, if you have a sensor which suddenly reports 99,999 RPM for something which normally fluctuates between 0-60,000 RPM, that generally isn't valid information for that sensor, and indicates abnormal behavior of the sensor rather than the state of the system.
Except that's not how they use those steps. The data is always corrected upward, usually by large amounts.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/
This is the breakdown of the method in actual use and how it's been abused to create the illusion of unprecedented warming.
Essentially anything put out by AGW folks needs to be carefully dissected because they are all using the same manipulated data.
Bismarck.Ramyrez
Serveur: Bismarck
Game: FFXI
Posts: 4746
By Bismarck.Ramyrez 2014-06-24 11:46:30
I am a huge fan of George Carlin. Probably bigger than most people you'll find who profess to be such. I'm quite familiar with that bit.
I think we're saying the same thing in many ways, just from different points of view.
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Cerberus.Pleebo
Serveur: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2014-06-24 12:10:47
So basically, your link pretty much backs up Altima's link, and people are saying that Altima is trolling?
I'm pretty sure you will counter with something like "But Al Gore said so, so it must be true!" So tell me then, out of the QA checks listed in Tables 1 and 2, which do you think were performed unreasonably and why?
Cerberus.Pleebo
Serveur: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2014-06-24 12:15:00
lol..
"So if you move this curve to here for no discernible reason and cherrypick this curve and compare it to this one then... YES YES IT ALL MAKES SENSE"
Serveur: Asura
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Posts: 34187
By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-06-24 12:15:53
lol..
"So if you move this curve to here for no discernible reason and cherrypick this curve and compare it to this one then... YES YES IT ALL MAKES SENSE" Wait, isn't that your argument for global warming?
Cerberus.Pleebo
Serveur: Cerberus
Game: FFXI
Posts: 9720
By Cerberus.Pleebo 2014-06-24 12:19:44
Which of the methods within the link do you believe are not discernible? Do tell.
Serveur: Asura
Game: FFXI
Posts: 34187
By Asura.Kingnobody 2014-06-24 12:45:46
Which of the methods within the link do you believe are not discernible? Do tell. None.
So, tell me, why were there additional "scrubbing" of data done to the raw data after the obvious errors were taken out?
Why were there so many errors to begin with?
One would expect to see that the unadjusted and adjusted data to be roughly the same, but that is not the case with this. What additional "errors" were found that is not reported, and are we sure that the "errors" found and removed were actual "errors" listed on Tables 1 and 2?
Bahamut.Milamber
Serveur: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3691
By Bahamut.Milamber 2014-06-24 12:47:11
Um.
1. US != World
2. That blog doesn't provide any evidence of any tampering, or changes to data. That involves providing raw data and the comparing 'altered' data.
3. The steps for sanity checks given by Pleebo's links are straightforward and necessary checks when dealing with real systems, particularly given normal failure modes for sensors.
For example, if you have a sensor which suddenly reports 99,999 RPM for something which normally fluctuates between 0-60,000 RPM, that generally isn't valid information for that sensor, and indicates abnormal behavior of the sensor rather than the state of the system.
Except that's not how they use those steps. The data is always corrected upward, usually by large amounts.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/08/the-smoking-gun-at-darwin-zero/
This is the breakdown of the method in actual use and how it's been abused to create the illusion of unprecedented warming.
Essentially anything put out by AGW folks needs to be carefully dissected because they are all using the same manipulated data. 1. No actual data is provided, for comparison before or after.
2. Jumps to conclusion that there is no justification for modificationn
3. Argues that raw data should be assumed as good and valid as default
There is a valid question of how do you perform a comparison to crosscheck when there is only one instrument in the relative area, but there are methodologies for doing this.
Anything put out by anyone needs to be treated with some degree of skepticism.
However, if you want to call ***, you should have more than speculation and 'well, this is what I would have done' by someone who evidently has little experience in handling such things.
Bahamut.Milamber
Serveur: Bahamut
Game: FFXI
Posts: 3691
By Bahamut.Milamber 2014-06-24 13:12:22
Which of the methods within the link do you believe are not discernible? Do tell. None.
So, tell me, why were there additional "scrubbing" of data done to the raw data after the obvious errors were taken out?
Why were there so many errors to begin with?
One would expect to see that the unadjusted and adjusted data to be roughly the same, but that is not the case with this. What additional "errors" were found that is not reported, and are we sure that the "errors" found and removed were actual "errors" listed on Tables 1 and 2?
Because it isn't a perfect world, and there are quite a number of non-obvious ways for sensors to either fail or report non-true data, and no-one so far has spent the money to be properly redundant at any given site (by general appearances)?
I wouldn't necessarily expect raw/corrected data to appear the same; it really, really depends on potential error sources. Real data is not necessarily easy or cheap to acquire in large, distributed systems.
Turns out the US has been cooling sense the 1930's when you look at charts/graphs that have not been "altered". Looks like I'm not the only one that has a problem with fudged data.
http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/data-tampering-at-ushcngiss/
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