Random Politics & Religion #00

None of these things are relevant in a general election featuring Trump and Clinton. Independents have not voted for Trump over Clinton, so there is no way to say which way they are going to go. Just because they voted for Trump over the other terrible GOP candidates doesn't mean they are going to vote for him in the general.
A lot of these primaries have been open, which means Dems can vote in them as well, and they have been, and that is a factor in turnout. Some states, like Illinois for example, you can vote in one primary or the other, not both. So you can bet that Dems are going to vote for Trump because they want him to be the nominee, and not worrying about the Dem primary because they know Clinton is going to win the nomination. That is definitely happening, which is why Montana is trying to close its primary.

Also, if you haven't seen how much support Clinton has with African Americans and Hispanics, then it is you that has not been paying attention. She won the entire South with those demographics.

That's insane. Why would they do that? Trump is by far the most dangerous of the GOP candidates in the general election. It's not even close! If I was a Democrat in one of those states, I'm pulling the lever for Cruz, who would face a much harsher road in the general.


Against Bernie. She's not winning those states in the general, no matter what her demographic support looks like.

Who here is not surprised in the least that African Americans and Hispanics voted for Clinton, please raise your hand.

Care to show some evidence of this. I doubt it. Nice try though.

Not really? Just wait for the Presidential debates when he gets up there and flubs every single question. His ignorance on almost every topic is astounding, especially foreign policy. He had nothing to say when the questions were focused on Israel and Cuba in the last debate.


She would take Florida, the only state she really needs down there.

Well...
...some men just want to watch the world burn.

For some reason Vic thinks Minority means Majority.

Some would say that about Cruz as well.

Fire is pretty regardless of which candidate lit it.

He needed to say something?....

Wasn't someone just saying old angry white men are all voting Trump? Isn't that what Florida is made of?


Or protester!

This has been the claim all along, and it hasn't sunk him yet. He's gaining speed. His campaign isn't playing by any known laws of physics, and expecting things like "policy proposals" and "debate performances" to matter is sooooo 2012, man.


Clinton/Trump in Florida would be an interesting race. I don't think it's a slam dunk for either.

No, there's a lot of stupid, young white men there too, which is also not exactly Hillary's core demographic

We have mocked him, but Florida Man's revenge on us all is at hand!

I'm more interested in Michigan. It was fairly close to turning red in 2012. It could go over the edge this year.

If that happens the end is nigh!

Its not going to sink him against the likes of Cruz and Kasich. They will try to sabotage him at the convention, we will see if they succeed. If they fail then the real race begins and he is going to actually have to run against someone with as much or more support than him.
And I don't see him winning Florida at all, the GOP platform of ending/reducing Social Security and health benefits on top of his anti-immigrant policy is not a recipe for success.

Didn't Obama win Michigan by 10 points in 2012, and that was Romney's home state?

Again.. Where on earth are you finding this information!?!

Sooooort of. His political career was entirely in Massachusetts, he didn't really have any Michigan ties beyond being born there. Him losing Michigan wasn't all that crazy, especially given that the state has leaned blue for a long time, unions and all.

Um.. Michigan has been DEEP BLUE for more than half a century! Detroit is practically a ghost town now. 10 points is nothing without Obama running. I'm not saying it is a guarantee or anything but it could happen and that alone is amazing.

Welp, pretty much all recent polls suggest Clinton is ahead of Trump by 3-4 percentage points, with a margin of error at 3-4%, easily concluding that Clinton has as much or more support than Trump. Maybe you are just ignoring those polls because it fits your agenda?

The polls that skew heavily democrat because Republicans normally don't come close to matching Democrat turnout?

Maybe you are just ignoring that fact because it fits your agenda?

All you have to do is listen to one of Hillary's speeches to understand how she has zero chance of winning. She is not genuine. She is not exciting. She promises everything to everyone even if those promises contradict one another.

Michigan's probably not in play, though; any chance the GOP might have had to ride the Trumpissimo wave probably got crushed when Snyder poisoned an entire *** city.

It'll likely be closer than 2012, with no Obama, but I doubt it goes red this time.

Nope, I am simply looking at the poll numbers to easily determine that Clinton has as much or more support than Trump. I have no idea why you are having such a hard time accepting this. No one is running away with the election as of March 22, 2016. You can fantasize about it like Aman there, but its not reality. Clinton can win.

Interesting how that works out isn't it? Even though it is easily found to be Democrats that lead that town (state) to ruin, they managed to pin it on the first Republican Governor in a generation.

Yeah, let's keep that in sight. There's a lot of time left on the clock, and no one's even wrapped up a nomination yet. Hillary might still be indicted. Trump might finally say something that pisses off his base. We might find that Bernie has like, four SuperPACs.

Anything is in play, which is part of what's making this election so much fun

/Looks at all of his posts.

Nope, never said anything like that. How goes the search for real Clinton supporters? Not well I guess, since you are standing by biased poll results.

Apparently, we are taking a massive break from the primaries after tonight. Only one state goes in the next 4 weeks.

Never said you did. You are free to use whatever poll you want, use Fox News, but to try to say that Clinton doesn't have support is delusion. Why don't you ask Aman what poll he is using to say Clinton has zero chance of winning? Doesn't fit your agenda?

There's actually more than enough blame to go around, there, but Snyder was the one appointing people to handle the situation/manage the transition in the first place. And honestly, if they'd acted on the new information from the onset, this is a much smaller deal and he probably comes out looking better (by watching out for his people and acting on new data).

So while he can't bear all the blame, he actually does deserve to take some licks on this one. The coverup was reprehensible.

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOORING

There most certainly is, he's playing by the laws of power. Every one of his actions has been calculated to create a specific reaction while also generation an emotional connection with the silent majority.

I mentioned above that you don't win support by rationally convincing people your the best choice. That's pure fantasy. You win support by creating an emotional connection with people, who then convince themselves your idea's sound rational. This isn't just trump, all positions of power play by this rule. All politicians do this, all leaders do this, just Trump is doing it far better on a national level.

For decades both political parties have agree to play by certain rules where in each side has their own chosen candidate and the whole election process is just staged theater. Since neither side breaks those unspoken rules they can maintain the status quot wherein they control power by choosing who gets the chance to be elected. Nobody gets elected or gains power without first subjecting themselves to the whims of these powerful entities. This system worked great for them, they always won and always got their way. Obama was the first mistake they've made in a long time, he was never supposed to win the primary. Unfortunately for him, he didn't' possess anywhere near the political acumen nor power to get things done and eventually had to bow before those same powerful entities. That was the difference between his first two year or three years and everything after it.

And now Trump is smashing all those unspoken rules. As a powerful political entity himself, he is never supposed to run for office, instead he is supposed to work with the rest and chose puppets to do his bidding. Trump as President would have less real power then Trump as world business leader. It's likely he's doing it for his vanity, to spite those who deliberately sidelined and stonewalled him when he threw his name in the hat back in 2012. Neither side wants him as President, they wouldn't be able to control him and with the mistake that was Obama, this would cause a rift and power struggle within each political party.

That is the reason he is attracting supporters from the silent masses who rarely vote or participate in the political process. Legions of disillusioned voters, who normally ignore the entire thing because "my vote doesn't count" are turning out because now they feel their vote does count. If they could get Trump elected they would spite not one but both political parties. They view it as a giant "*** you" to the entire political system of elites, on both sides, controlling everything. And right now everyone, especially the democrats, are playing into his hands.

Every time a liberal / democrat source makes a ridiculously loud claim against Trump, they empower him with more voters and fuel his candidacy. Whenever a new site says "only idiots vote for Trump", scores more join him. They do so because it spite in the face of the political system. And remember these are people who normally don't participate, they don't fill out surveys, they don't answer polls, whenever someone calls them asking their opinion they just hang up the phone. They are discounted by both parties with only a small number going out and tipping the balance of an election. So while they still don't answer the surveys or polls, they are going out and voting in the primaries and later general election. That is why you see a political poll say "everyone hates him!!!" and yet he is crushing everyone else. While spending the least among the top candidates.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html?_r=0

$27 million raise by Trump vs $104 million by Cruz and $188 million by Hillary. Now imagine what he would do with access to the full financial resources of the Republican party. And he will get that if he wins the candidacy as regardless of how much core GoP hates Trump, they hate the Democrats even more.

I know this is long, there was a lot of material to cover. The point is to underestimate or denigrate Trump at your own peril. The dudes a political genius.

Nice back peddle! /clap

All the polls go by the past few elections voter turnout. Everyone know this.. DOesn't matter if its fox,nbc,abcdefg...
Nowhere did I say Clinton doesn't have support, just not as much as you are claiming.


Last I checked, I wasn't addressing Aman. Nor was he addressing me.. Why do you need to bring him into this? Most likely because you know you are 100% wrong and need to change the subject.