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U.S. Climate Has Already Changed, Study Finds
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By Odin.Jassik 2015-08-13 13:21:07
Phoenix.Amandarius said: »I would like to see a study of climate scientists.
I can guarantee with certainty that almost every young adult choosing to pursue that field already has their mind made up on the subject of climate change before they've ever cracked a book or done an experiment. I am sure they are liberal. I am sure in America they already vote Democrat. Certain fields attract people of a certain mindset.
When you can't argue against the science, just call all the scientists a liberal conspiracy, cause that doesn't make you sound like a fruitcake...
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 Ragnarok.Nausi
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By Ragnarok.Nausi 2015-08-13 13:25:45
Phoenix.Amandarius said: »I would like to see a study of climate scientists.
I can guarantee with certainty that almost every young adult choosing to pursue that field already has their mind made up on the subject of climate change before they've ever cracked a book or done an experiment. I am sure they are liberal. I am sure in America they already vote Democrat. Certain fields attract people of a certain mindset.
When you can't argue against the science, just call all the scientists a liberal conspiracy, cause that doesn't make you sound like a fruitcake...
Politicized science isnt actual science.
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By Odin.Jassik 2015-08-13 13:27:00
Phoenix.Amandarius said: »I would like to see a study of climate scientists.
I can guarantee with certainty that almost every young adult choosing to pursue that field already has their mind made up on the subject of climate change before they've ever cracked a book or done an experiment. I am sure they are liberal. I am sure in America they already vote Democrat. Certain fields attract people of a certain mindset.
When you can't argue against the science, just call all the scientists a liberal conspiracy, cause that doesn't make you sound like a fruitcake...
Politicized science isnt actual science.
I feel like you don't understand how that statement affects your position on the subject.
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By Bismarck.Bloodbathboy 2015-08-13 13:29:41
I live in the NW and I can tell you it has been the warmest and dryest summer I can remember here.
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 Valefor.Sehachan
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By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-08-13 13:30:20
Phoenix.Amandarius said: »every young adult choosing to pursue that field already has their mind made up on the subject of climate change before they've ever cracked a book. That is not how science in university works.
You learn theory, then test it in a lab to verify it's true. It's the same dumb argument people of the antivax conspiracy make "but the professor have interests and are giving you false information!" orly then how come my molecules work as intended when I wear a fancy coat?
Now go to a natural science department, attend the lab classes and see how the greenhouse effect works. Actually no, you don't need to, they teach you about greenhouse effect even in middle school.
OH GUYS IT'S SO LIBERAL TO UNDERSTAND HOW SCIENCE WORKS
Well there's people who think even evolution isn't a thing, so why are we even surprised..
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Ragnarok.Nausi
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By Ragnarok.Nausi 2015-08-13 13:30:24
Phoenix.Amandarius said: »I would like to see a study of climate scientists.
I can guarantee with certainty that almost every young adult choosing to pursue that field already has their mind made up on the subject of climate change before they've ever cracked a book or done an experiment. I am sure they are liberal. I am sure in America they already vote Democrat. Certain fields attract people of a certain mindset.
When you can't argue against the science, just call all the scientists a liberal conspiracy, cause that doesn't make you sound like a fruitcake...
Politicized science isnt actual science.
I feel like you don't understand how that statement affects your position on the subject.
Im the skeptic, I need to be convinced. You're the alarmist, towing the line on a reality that doesn't exist.
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Valefor.Sehachan
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By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-08-13 13:31:01
You are not a skeptic, you are a denier. You do not want to be convinced.
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By Odin.Jassik 2015-08-13 13:32:13
Phoenix.Amandarius said: »I would like to see a study of climate scientists.
I can guarantee with certainty that almost every young adult choosing to pursue that field already has their mind made up on the subject of climate change before they've ever cracked a book or done an experiment. I am sure they are liberal. I am sure in America they already vote Democrat. Certain fields attract people of a certain mindset.
When you can't argue against the science, just call all the scientists a liberal conspiracy, cause that doesn't make you sound like a fruitcake...
Politicized science isnt actual science.
I feel like you don't understand how that statement affects your position on the subject.
Im the skeptic, I need to be convinced. You're the alarmist, towing the line on a reality that doesn't exist.
Nope, no portion of the scientific method requires you being convinced of anything.
Also, you can't claim to be a skeptic if you ignore evidence presented in favor of evidence that confirms your presumptions.
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Ragnarok.Nausi
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By Ragnarok.Nausi 2015-08-13 13:33:15
You are not a skeptic, you are a denier. You do not want to be convinced.
I do not deny models that have failed to accurately predict future temps for 40 years, they're everywhere.
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By Odin.Jassik 2015-08-13 13:33:51
Bismarck.Bloodbathboy said: »I live in the NW and I can tell you it has been the warmest and dryest summer I can remember here.
And so was last year, and the year before. Every year is the hottest and driest in this region.
Valefor.Sehachan
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By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-08-13 13:33:56
no portion of the scientific method requires you being convinced of anything Steps of the scientific method:
Ask a Question
Do Background Research
Construct a Hypothesis
Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment
Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion
Communicate Your Results
Convince Nausi
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Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-13 13:36:06
I'd be surprised if anyone here could actually understand how a climate model works. It's much easier to say they dont work and ignore any evidence to the contrary. And a year later they're still struggling to get their models straight. Link?
I'm sure you remember the semi-recent news about using modifiers to explain away the hiatus. And I'm sure you're aware that there are still countless variations on climate models. And this is evidence of...? Because models are constantly refined and having multiple models is good for replication. And the news you're referring to wasn't pertaining to a predictive climate model. It was a reanalysis of historical records.
If you admit that they're still getting their models straight, why did you ask for a link? And the historical records were modified because they couldn't seem to get consistent ocean temperatures, so they ended up scaling them up because somehow engine intakes measure temperature better than buoys? If all else fails, let's adjust it to the warmer one so that it matches what we think should be happening according to our models.
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Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-13 13:37:21
Bismarck.Bloodbathboy said: »I live in the NW and I can tell you it has been the warmest and dryest summer I can remember here.
And so was last year, and the year before. Every year is the hottest and driest in this region.
Maybe, but if I told you it was cooler than usual where I live, everyone would be shouting, "CLIMATE IS NOT WEATHER!"
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VIP
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By Odin.Jassik 2015-08-13 13:40:06
I'd be surprised if anyone here could actually understand how a climate model works. It's much easier to say they dont work and ignore any evidence to the contrary. And a year later they're still struggling to get their models straight. Link?
I'm sure you remember the semi-recent news about using modifiers to explain away the hiatus. And I'm sure you're aware that there are still countless variations on climate models. And this is evidence of...? Because models are constantly refined and having multiple models is good for replication. And the news you're referring to wasn't pertaining to a predictive climate model. It was a reanalysis of historical records.
If you admit that they're still getting their models straight, why did you ask for a link? And the historical records were modified because they couldn't seem to get consistent ocean temperatures, so they ended up scaling them up because somehow engine intakes measure temperature better than buoys? If all else fails, let's adjust it to the warmer one so that it matches what we think should be happening according to our models.
So, you questioned the accuracy of the buoys, then questioned their maintenance, then question the methods to correct the inaccuracy... I agree 100% that conclusions drawn from bad data are bad, but you are also holding data to a standard that is unreasonable for the time in which it was taken.
Maybe, but if I told you it was cooler than usual where I live, everyone would be shouting, "CLIMATE IS NOT WEATHER!"
I never said it was. But, part of climate change means some places will get cooler. I never had a need for AC for 30+ years where I live, the last 3 years we've had months on end where it didn't drop below 70 at night and was above 100 during the day. Droughts, forest fires, etc. In the mountains of Idaho, over one of the largest freshwater aquifers in America, we're rationing water.
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By Bismarck.Bloodbathboy 2015-08-13 13:41:17
Bismarck.Bloodbathboy said: »I live in the NW and I can tell you it has been the warmest and dryest summer I can remember here.
And so was last year, and the year before. Every year is the hottest and driest in this region.
Maybe, but if I told you it was cooler than usual where I live, everyone would be shouting, "CLIMATE IS NOT WEATHER!" I would take more rain and cooler ATM. Man, I can't believe I just wrote that lol!
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Valefor.Sehachan
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By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-08-13 13:46:12
Maybe, but if I told you it was cooler than usual where I live, everyone would be shouting, "CLIMATE IS NOT WEATHER!" But it affects frequency and intensity of rainfalls, as well as their distribution, the behaviour of water currents and wildlife as a whole.
Meanwhile in Italy we now have tropical fish, even sharks! Frequent hurricanes(that were never a thing in the Mediterranean before); bathing in the sea is like dipping into a warm soup which is a rather strange experience and animals that normally live in our regions are trying to migrate elsewhere.
Do you know that the chamois of the Alps has been getting progressively smaller because due to the increase in temperature it eats less?
themoreyouknow~★
Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-13 13:49:22
So, you questioned the accuracy of the buoys, then questioned their maintenance, then question the methods to correct the inaccuracy... I agree 100% that conclusions drawn from bad data are bad, but you are also holding data to a standard that is unreasonable for the time in which it was taken.
If I require a certain level of accuracy for current data and previous data does not meet that level of accuracy, I do not base conclusions off of previous data, whether it was unreasonable to expect such accuracy at the time or not.
Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-13 13:51:30
Maybe, but if I told you it was cooler than usual where I live, everyone would be shouting, "CLIMATE IS NOT WEATHER!" But it affects frequency and intensity of rainfalls, as well as their distribution, the behaviour of water currents and wildlife as a whole.
Meanwhile in Italy we now have tropical fish, even sharks! Frequent hurricanes(that were never a thing in the Mediterranean before); bathing in the sea is like dipping into a warm soup which is a rather strange experience and animals that normally live in our regions are trying to migrate elsewhere.
Do you know that the chamois of the Alps has been getting progressively smaller because due to the increase in temperature it eats less?
themoreyouknow~★
I'm fully aware of the effects of the effects that climate change can have, thank you. That wasn't my point, though.
Ragnarok.Nausi
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By Ragnarok.Nausi 2015-08-13 13:51:39
No, dumping record amounts of co2 is suppose to make the world hotter, thats what all the models have said (and failed to validate) since I've been alive.
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By Odin.Jassik 2015-08-13 13:52:08
So, you questioned the accuracy of the buoys, then questioned their maintenance, then question the methods to correct the inaccuracy... I agree 100% that conclusions drawn from bad data are bad, but you are also holding data to a standard that is unreasonable for the time in which it was taken.
If I require a certain level of accuracy for current data and previous data does not meet that level of accuracy, I do not base conclusions off of previous data, whether it was unreasonable to expect such accuracy at the time or not.
So, at what point is your cutoff? What level of accuracy do you require? 1950's? 1980's? 2010? So long as the change is less than the margin of error, why would you narrow your data set down to an unusable level other than to dismiss results you don't like?
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By Odin.Jassik 2015-08-13 13:52:42
No, dumping record amounts of co2 is suppose to make the world hotter, thats what all the models have said (and failed to validate) since I've been alive.
Unless you were born in 1997, you're wrong.
Valefor.Sehachan
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By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-08-13 13:53:15
No, dumping record amounts of co2 is suppose to make the world hotter, thats what all the models have said (and failed to validate) since I've been alive. Venus has been lying to us all along!!
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Cerberus.Pleebo
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By Cerberus.Pleebo 2015-08-13 13:54:13
If you admit that they're still getting their models straight, why did you ask for a link? And the historical records were modified because they couldn't seem to get consistent ocean temperatures, so they ended up scaling them up because somehow engine intakes measure temperature better than buoys? If all else fails, let's adjust it to the warmer one so that it matches what we think should be happening according to our models. Um, ok, you're a statistician? Really? Because you're acting Nausi-level ignorant here. The models have managed to stay accurate within their described limits. I've linked several times to evidence supporting this. You and the other denier-- oh, skeptics, have not linked a single thing to refute this. Hell, you haven't even linked a single anything.
You know how this works. Well, in theory you should. Models are incomplete descriptions of natural phenomenon. Always incomplete and never 100% accurate because it's near impossible to account for literally everything. When new information is obtained, a model is updated. Only people looking to justify their ignorant talking points would see this as nefarious plotting instead of what it is - the typical scientific process.
And to the other posts, you people realize that climate science is a global initiative? One that exists out of small-minded view of red v blue?
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Valefor.Sehachan
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By Valefor.Sehachan 2015-08-13 13:55:57
And to the other posts, you people realize that climate science is a global initiative? One that exists out of small-minded view of red v blue? ...maybe nazis?
Phoenix.Sehachan
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By Phoenix.Sehachan 2015-08-13 13:57:33
Gay climate fascists?
Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-13 13:57:34
So, you questioned the accuracy of the buoys, then questioned their maintenance, then question the methods to correct the inaccuracy... I agree 100% that conclusions drawn from bad data are bad, but you are also holding data to a standard that is unreasonable for the time in which it was taken.
If I require a certain level of accuracy for current data and previous data does not meet that level of accuracy, I do not base conclusions off of previous data, whether it was unreasonable to expect such accuracy at the time or not.
So, at what point is your cutoff? What level of accuracy do you require? 1950's? 1980's? 2010? So long as the change is less than the margin of error, why would you narrow your data set down to an unusable level other than to dismiss results you don't like?
Why would I do that when I can simply modify it to become a result that I do like?
In case I need to repeat myself, I don't deny that climate change could be happening or even that there is good evidence that it is. I just find much of the research to be incredibly shady and the politics of, yes, both sides causing heads to turn and blinders to be put on when things seem a tad off.
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By Odin.Jassik 2015-08-13 13:57:50
No, dumping record amounts of co2 is suppose to make the world hotter, thats what all the models have said (and failed to validate) since I've been alive. Venus has been lying to us all along!!
It was 800 degrees yesterday and today it's only 799!
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 Leviathan.Chaosx
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By Leviathan.Chaosx 2015-08-13 13:59:05
Let's pretend for a minute that human made co2 is the #1 cause of climate change. What's a tangible solution?
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Ragnarok.Nausi
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By Ragnarok.Nausi 2015-08-13 14:00:53
No, dumping record amounts of co2 is suppose to make the world hotter, thats what all the models have said (and failed to validate) since I've been alive.
Unless you were born in 1997, you're wrong. No, how can one argue that moar co2 = more warming then over 18 years when moar co2 doesn't = moar warming, still conclude that co2 is the doomsday compound we were all told it was?
Bahamut.Ravael
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By Bahamut.Ravael 2015-08-13 14:01:42
Um, ok, you're a statistician? Really? Because you're acting Nausi-level ignorant here. The models have managed to stay accurate within their described limits. I've linked several times to evidence supporting this. You and the other denier-- oh, skeptics, have not linked a single thing to refute this. Hell, you haven't even linked a single anything.
You know how this works. Well, in theory you should. Models are incomplete descriptions of natural phenomenon. Always incomplete and never 100% accurate because it's near impossible to account for literally everything. When new information is obtained, a model is updated. Only people looking to justify their ignorant talking points would see this as nefarious plotting instead of what it is - the typical scientific process.
I've asked you several times for complete data sets so that I could analyze them myself, and every time you've sent me on wild goose chases into websites that didn't give me squat. I basically implied that the models needed work, you agreed, and you still manage to try and insult my intelligence with arguments that have little to do with what I've actually said. I'm glad your peanut gallery thinks you're scoring points, though.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/07/science/earth/climate-change-report.html?_r=3
A very extensive report, known as the National Climate Assessment, was released earlier this week. Nothing in the report is particularly surprising, but its presentation for the general public, here, is incredibly impressive. (Not all government website releases are a disaster!)
If hardcore technical reports aren't your thing, the highlights portion of the site breaks each section down as plainly as possible, is extensively cited, and makes no secret the level of uncertainty inherent in current findings. The site is really quite fantastic, and I would encourage anyone with genuine interest, skepticism, and/or curiosity in U.S. climate change to fuck around in it for a while. (Of course, if well-substantiated, easily digestible scientific communications aren't your thing, there's always this.)
Perhaps, the most poignant message arising from the report is summarized in this quote from the article:
Quote: The report pointed out that while the country as a whole still had no comprehensive climate legislation, many states and cities had begun to take steps to limit emissions and to adapt to climatic changes that can no longer be avoided. But the report found that these efforts were inadequate. I don't really consider myself a policy person so... what do?
Edit: Also of note is the high diversity of those involved. Largely scientists, of course, but representative of a wide swath of interests, including some oil companies.
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