Russia And Ukraine

No problem.

It took Russia a couple of decades to get back to USSR levels. I wouldn't call that an immediate win. Now Russia has more companies/business people who have influence on the government if the market retreats too much. Which is who, I assume, the West is hoping will influence Putin.

The markets in Russia look to be volatile at the moment, but that isn't automatically a bad thing. Volatile markets attract investors because the potential to make a lot of money increases (the inverse also increases) if the rewards are high enough.

Ukraine's deposed President Viktor Yanukovych says Russia's annexation of Crimea is "a tragedy" and he hopes it will become part of Ukraine again.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26857734


This is the same guy that the Russian diplomat claimed wrote a letter to Putin asking him to intervene in Crimea.

Its his best Romney impersonation.

... Always more than one of them in the world somewhere.

moar!

If someone took Ren'py and let their imagination go wild, what I linked earlier might become a reality.

Almost sounds like he's trying to justify his next invasion.

either that or the ego boost of invading a nation, getting away with it, then having the world pay him for it..

The article is not quite right.
He did not say the Ukraine has a debt in these hights (it's around 2.2 billions atm), but he states that he 'subsidised' the Ukraine in the mentions heights.
The rest of the article is correct.

Annexation of Chrimea was just the first step on his march toward propping up the Russian economy by trying to control energy costs in Europe. He's leveraging Russia's petroleum in order to exact political control of much of Eastern Europe. I don't see this going very far, the EU has a significant monetary advantage even in its current state.

What's the likelihood that we'd intervene (meaning the USA, obviously) if the EU was struggling to shut out that tactic, do you figure?

Depends on what you mean by intervene. There isn't much to intervene in right now, Putin is waving his finger and being ignored. Russia supplies the EU with 30% of its total natural gas and if he inhibits any of it he will be taking even more money out of his now pathetic economy. There is no potential of anything happening from Russia before the Ukrainian elections.

I don't have a specific definition of intervention. Could be anything from politely cheering from the sidelines to putting even more economic pressure on Russia to turning the whole of Moscow into glass.

Ukraine crisis could hit Russian GDP



Also, tensions are increasing again after this weekend and todays response
Ukraine says Donetsk 'anti-terror operation' under way

Intervene it hard to define, I don't see Russia pushing hard enough to illicit an actual response besides hard speeches and economic pressure.

Oil.

Other than that Russia's problems are none of the U.S.'s concerns. The U.S. is losing its standing as the self appointed world police along with the decline of the petrodollar and as a reserve currency.

What you guys (western world) are experiencing is the transfer of a new world economy. They have not gotten all the details finalized, but are well in works as they kind of got rushed now. As someone who has just lived in worked in Russia for the past year, the economy over there is excellent and it is one of the places where all the good high skilled jobs are. Anything else is neo-con / cold war thinking on the U.S. part.

Welcome to the new world. Embrace it or live in denial.

EU is in no position either. IMF / ECB are crumbling financial institutions. The only thing that will survive is the BIS.

Ukraine is being used as a pawn by U.S. / EU (UK said funk that) and Israel to assert a USD dominance over the country. They looked at the numbers only after they got everybody all excited to join the EU, and saw there was no way they could absorb the EU's inflation problem. Nobody wants the burden of importing USD/EUR (tied together) inflation and absorbing it through austerity.

Only problem is Yanukovych was corrupt with their money, but now you have radicals who have seized power in Kiev. They have zero experience in governing and to put it politely are very hateful people. People in Eastern Europe are all about taking action to fix a problem rather than arguing and ramble on while nothing gets done, which is why the East gave them ~2 months to at least come up with a plan. No plan, no money, just hate and violence. So the west's time is up. They want to get back to work and live their lives in peace. Not going to happen with a crazy lunatic screaming about killing all Russians.

Until Kiev can produce a competent enough government, that for instance knows what the Swiss flag looks like, the situation will just get worse. The U.S. is so paranoid over anything Russia or Putin will that they keep waiting for the IMF to do something, as in put your money where your mouth is. Nothing though. U.S. will make more money financing a civil war. Already talk of providing weapons. Russia does not want this, but has little they can do without paranoid U.S. opening its big mouth.

At this point the Kiev government only knows violence and so this is their solution. Meanwhile the east (of Ukraine) is standing their ground.

Taking control of Crimea before all this broke out was the smartest thing Russia could have done. And they did it without a single death... well a few weeks later I think 1-2 people were shot being a bunch of idiots. That's expected, but for the most part went very well. Everyone was for it, as it a military region, in which Russia owns a naval base. Their economy relies on Russia. The only objection was from a few Tatars who are living in the past and they are ok with it for now.

Do not forget that Russia controls ~40% (South Africa, an ally ~44%) of all the worlds palladium supplies. Since Crimea it's price has gone from the $695-$745 range to $780-$810 range. Very important, but overlooked metal.

Control of Ukraine is not an option from either side. Putin is just using it a prime example of failed U.S. foreign policy, because it's right next to their country. Anything else, and you've living in the 1950's.

Only America still obsesses with imperialism and trying to find the next Hitler. Take a look in the mirror.

When this is finally all over, Yanukovych will spend some much needed time in a Siberian labor camp. Probably only for a year or two. But any assets he has (or stole) will not be waiting for him.

FTFY. Unfortunately, Putin's land grab has exposed the Russian economy for what it really is, a poorly run country that is now facing decline. Growth has come to a halt and foreign investors have pulled over $60 billion worth of capital out of Russia. The ruble has sunk to all time lows and has not improved at all, despite the banks spending billions to stabilize it, billions they will not be getting back. They are also having to go over budget to finance Crimea, which will just make things worse. And the West hasn't even had to impose sanctions, which it can still do at any time. Hope it was worth it, Putin.

Every time I see this thread on the main page I think of
"Russia and Ukraine walk into a bar..."
But then I don't know how the rest of the joke would go...

Don't think Ivan or Tony forgot.

Don't know where you get your information from. I get mine from traveling and working there. Only reason I left was my work visa was up along with the job.

Going to give China another year, hopefully soon as being back in the states, especially NJ, sucks. Most likely will move to St. Petersburg permanently after all of that. IMO best place to live all around. Plenty of jobs still, but I want to experience China some more before I call Russia home. Besides learning Chinese in China is fun and the Russians want me to learn as much of it as possible for translation purposes.

So all this 'a poorly run country that is now facing decline' I've yet to see. Only the opposite is what I've experienced in 3 different cities there. I think you need to go there in order to make a sound judgement.

I don't think I need to go there at all, I'll stick to listening to the Russian economists who openly talk about the crisis their country is facing, as well as looking at the stock index. When exactly did you leave? I'm guessing before this crisis started, so you are dealing with obsolete information.

I just got back April 5th from a 6 month job. Was in China right before that. And was in Russia again before that.

Chronologically it went:

St. Petersburg, Russia from June 2012 ~ Dec 2012 (6 month entry level)
Chengdu, China March 2013 ~ July 2013 (4 month internship-like job)
Oryol, Russia Oct 2013 ~ April 2014 (6 month full time contract)

Upcoming:
Two offers of 1 year contract work in Chengdu, China. (Fall 2014)
One position waiting for me in St. Petersburg once I'm ready. (Whenever I want... kinda)

Slew of places in Oryol, but I like St. Petersburg better.

Ok, I didn't ask for all that. Perhaps you should do some research, just google russian economy.

Why am I going to research something I'm already involved in firsthand? Especially since this 'research' is just flat out wrong, unless I am some extraordinary exception, which I highly doubt.

Research shows the labor market is in desperate need of more workers in Russia. Labor force cannot keep up with demand so they are desperate for immigrants.