September 24, 2012 Version Update
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September 24, 2012 Version Update
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 Bahamut.Bojack
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By Bahamut.Bojack 2012-09-24 21:27:27
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
It's much more likely that if they changed it at all, there is no way to tell from client side. Your theories sound like the talk of a desperate man.

It's still very winnable, just don't bring anyone who can't count to five.

Depending on your luck picking an order it doesn't really matter if you can count to 5 or not. With 5 lamps if you have bad luck like, None right > 1 right > 3 right > 5 right. All those attempts is probably going to cost you the win with that stupid cooldown timer after you put in an order.
 Odin.Tsuneo
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By Odin.Tsuneo 2012-09-24 21:28:48
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That's what you would think, but that guy is apparently the god of Nyzul.
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 Leviathan.Dreamx
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By Leviathan.Dreamx 2012-09-24 21:39:18
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Odin.Tsuneo said: »
That's what you would think, but that guy is apparently the god of Nyzul.

He kind of ...well... is.
 
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 Phoenix.Icemn
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By Phoenix.Icemn 2012-09-24 21:53:54
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Update: Yeah just got two more order floors, the numbers no longer mean ***they just let you know how many lamps are on that floor, we had one that was somethng like 1 > 3 > 2 > 4, completely random now.

And if he's the "god of Neo Nyzul" Good job, you know how to use Clipper LOL
 Odin.Tsuneo
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By Odin.Tsuneo 2012-09-24 21:55:53
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We barely got order floors after we started using the mods. I guess now we'll start getting them again.
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 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2012-09-24 22:00:52
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Bahamut.Bojack said: »
Depending on your luck picking an order it doesn't really matter if you can count to 5 or not. With 5 lamps if you have bad luck like, None right > 1 right > 3 right > 5 right. All those attempts is probably going to cost you the win with that stupid cooldown timer after you put in an order.
2.5min wasted over order, if you get a 5 order floor with the worst possible luck. How does that make it unwinnable..? The floor distribution on original BG thread had lamps at ~15%, which'd put order at 5% if even probability(seems about right to me, though I'm sure someone will chime in saying you're guaranteed 4 ordered lamp floors every run). If average #/skips is 19(99/5.5=18, then factor in that rate goes to ***post-90 due to anything over 100 rerolling), you have a .95^19 = 37.7% chance of not seeing a single ordered lamp floor on any given run(needs to be corrected for floor variance if you wanted a perfect estimate, but it'll be very close to real number).

To repeat, over one third of runs do not even have lamp order floors.

I don't know about your group(s), but mine end with 3-5 min remaining pretty frequently, in those cases a single BAD lamp floor would not cause any difference in the outcome. Furthermore, most lamp floors will not play out like that. You're not guaranteed 5 lamps, you're not guaranteed awful luck, and you aren't guaranteed bad original order.

Bottom line is that for an organized group, this shouldn't change your win rate by more than 10%. There's no reason to be drama queens over it, it's still very winnable, and even a win rate of 15% would be more than sufficient for this gear.
 Odin.Tsuneo
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By Odin.Tsuneo 2012-09-24 22:02:46
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Frequently ending runs with 3-5 minutes to spare?
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2012-09-24 22:05:08
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As frequently is subjective, I'll rephrase.

About one fourth of the time I enter Nyzul, my run ends with over 3 minutes remaining upon Dvali's defeat.

Strange thing to focus on, I'd think the bolded part adds more weight to the current conversation.
 Odin.Tsuneo
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By Odin.Tsuneo 2012-09-24 22:07:48
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I'd think that you would see that I pointed out that I rarely get order floors.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2012-09-24 22:09:48
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Strange you'd agree that it's a problem then, because it really doesn't effect much. Yea, it'll cause an occasional timeout that wouldn't have otherwise happened, but the content is still not that hard. The only groups that'll be wrecked by this are the ones that have little semblance of organization and can't follow basic instruction from the leader.
 Phoenix.Icemn
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By Phoenix.Icemn 2012-09-24 22:10:58
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
Bahamut.Bojack said: »
Depending on your luck picking an order it doesn't really matter if you can count to 5 or not. With 5 lamps if you have bad luck like, None right > 1 right > 3 right > 5 right. All those attempts is probably going to cost you the win with that stupid cooldown timer after you put in an order.
2.5min wasted over order, if you get a 5 order floor with the worst possible luck. How does that make it unwinnable..? The floor distribution on original BG thread had lamps at ~15%, which'd put order at 5% if even probability(seems about right to me, though I'm sure someone will chime in saying you're guaranteed 4 ordered lamp floors every run). If average #/skips is 19(99/5.5=18, then factor in that rate goes to ***post-90 due to anything over 100 rerolling), you have a .95^19 = 37.7% chance of not seeing a single ordered lamp floor on any given run(needs to be corrected for floor variance if you wanted a perfect estimate, but it'll be very close to real number).

To repeat, over one third of runs do not even have lamp order floors.

I don't know about your group(s), but mine end with 3-5 min remaining pretty frequently, in those cases a single BAD lamp floor would not cause any difference in the outcome. Furthermore, most lamp floors will not play out like that. You're not guaranteed 5 lamps, you're not guaranteed awful luck, and you aren't guaranteed bad original order.

Bottom line is that for an organized group, this shouldn't change your win rate by more than 10%. There's no reason to be drama queens over it, it's still very winnable, and even a win rate of 15% would be more than sufficient for this gear.

Dude...no one was being a Drama queen anywhere, I was informing the FFXI Community as a whole that it's NOT reliable, because sitting there going "Ok wtf, why is 1 > 2 > 3 not *** working?" Actually wastes more time than going "Ok 3 > 2 > 1. Wrong? 2 > 1 > 3 Etc Etc." Also we did 3 runs today, run 1 no order floors, run 2 1 order floor that we found out .dat swaps no longer worked for it and run 3 which gave us 2 order floors 1 with 4 lamps and the second with 5 lamps, so I really couldn't care less for your math because % =/= exact, just the likeliness of it happening/not happening while it still COULD happen.
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 Odin.Tsuneo
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By Odin.Tsuneo 2012-09-24 22:11:42
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It's not a huge problem, but I'd rather not have that problem at all regardless of how small of a problem it is.
 Bahamut.Bojack
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By Bahamut.Bojack 2012-09-24 22:18:11
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None of it will matter if I keep crashing like this in Nyzul.
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 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2012-09-24 22:19:01
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Phoenix.Icemn said: »
I really couldn't care less for your math because % =/= exact, just the likeliness of it happening/not happening while it still COULD happen.
Of course it could happen, but the probability determines the general impact. Losing 2 runs in a night you would've otherwise won sucks, but on the grand scale you should still easily cap in under a month.

People saying win rate will drop by 99% and creating elaborate scenarios for the worst possible outcome of it instead of being realistic is drama queening, in my opinion.
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 Bahamut.Lalafel
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By Bahamut.Lalafel 2012-09-24 22:20:05
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Bahamut.Bojack said: »
None of it will matter if I keep crashing like this in Nyzul.

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-pork-bacon-shortage-20120924,0,5901787.story
 Phoenix.Icemn
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By Phoenix.Icemn 2012-09-24 22:24:24
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
Phoenix.Icemn said: »
I really couldn't care less for your math because % =/= exact, just the likeliness of it happening/not happening while it still COULD happen.
Of course it could happen, but the probability determines the general impact. Losing 2 runs in a night you would've otherwise won sucks, but on the grand scale you should still easily cap in under a month.

People saying win rate will drop by 99% and creating elaborate scenarios for the worst possible outcome of it instead of being realistic is drama queening, in my opinion.

And to this I will agree with, but you said something about my first post which had nothing to do with any sort of drama queening lol, I only stated the fact for the general FFXI population to know v-v
 Kooljack
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By Kooljack 2012-09-24 22:29:44
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kclubs cant be 100m, so abyssea now drops beastmen seals and kindred seals? o.O
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2012-09-24 22:42:00
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Kooljack said: »
kclubs cant be 100m, so abyssea now drops beastmen seals and kindred seals? o.O
Abyssea has always dropped them, it's a level cutoff. In visions especially, underleveled mobs are still in the beastmen/kindred range.
 Kooljack
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By Kooljack 2012-09-24 22:45:57
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Leviathan.Comeatmebro said: »
Kooljack said: »
kclubs cant be 100m, so abyssea now drops beastmen seals and kindred seals? o.O
Abyssea has always dropped them, it's a level cutoff. In visions especially, underleveled mobs are still in the beastmen/kindred range.

the cutoff for beastmen seals is lv 50 sonny iv never seen beastmen seals in abyssea till today
 Kooljack
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By Kooljack 2012-09-24 22:50:25
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ohk i guess im derpin my bad lv 70 on beastmen seals interesting though i dont recall seeing seals in abyssea before
 Shiva.Keyera
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By Shiva.Keyera 2012-09-24 23:45:33
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On the order lamp situation:

Had a run earlier today where our order ended up being 2 > 1 > 4 > 3 (#s are what the order would have been pre-patch)

Thoughts are:

It's either completely random each time

-or-

the order is based on server

Hunch leans towards the first, hope leans towards the second.

Anyone with a similar order on Shiva? or are order lamps basically run killers now?

edit: It's completely random, just had another 4 floor and attempted the same combination and it failed.
 Carbuncle.Templite
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By Carbuncle.Templite 2012-09-25 00:06:25
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oh this is really pretty bad news, i hoped they were bluffing

missed window of opportunity for less stressful nyzul since i have no jobs that it favors

had just put in order to buy 15/15 from people who arent scummy

now they dont want to go anymore i bet
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 Gilgamesh.Nynja
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By Gilgamesh.Nynja 2012-09-25 00:28:54
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Shiva.Keyera said: »
edit: It's completely random, just had another 4 floor and attempted the same combination and it failed.
Which floors were they? No point discounting possible patterns just yet, maybe the order is based on the floor youre on (5,10,15,etc, which batch of 20 you're in.
 Phoenix.Icemn
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By Phoenix.Icemn 2012-09-25 00:30:37
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Shiva.Keyera said: »
On the order lamp situation:

Had a run earlier today where our order ended up being 2 > 1 > 4 > 3 (#s are what the order would have been pre-patch)

Thoughts are:

It's either completely random each time

-or-

the order is based on server

Hunch leans towards the first, hope leans towards the second.

Anyone with a similar order on Shiva? or are order lamps basically run killers now?

edit: It's completely random, just had another 4 floor and attempted the same combination and it failed.

I said that earlier v-v so people wouldn't get caught off guard like this XD
 Shiva.Keyera
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By Shiva.Keyera 2012-09-25 00:36:04
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Gilgamesh.Nynja said: »
Which floors were they? No point discounting possible patterns just yet, maybe the order is based on the floor youre on (5,10,15,etc, which batch of 20 you're in.

Both were between 40~60, iirc.

I mean, technically, with no order floors it's probably a 33% win rate with a decent group. Given a 5%ish chance to get an order floor and the 17~20 jumps required to hit 100 (on average)...it's not like the event became impossible, just more random (as SE seems to enjoy making things).
 Phoenix.Icemn
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By Phoenix.Icemn 2012-09-25 01:15:52
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Shiva.Keyera said: »
Gilgamesh.Nynja said: »
Which floors were they? No point discounting possible patterns just yet, maybe the order is based on the floor youre on (5,10,15,etc, which batch of 20 you're in.

Both were between 40~60, iirc.

I mean, technically, with no order floors it's probably a 33% win rate with a decent group. Given a 5%ish chance to get an order floor and the 17~20 jumps required to hit 100 (on average)...it's not like the event became impossible, just more random (as SE seems to enjoy making things).

More luck based you mean lol.
 Bahamut.Bojack
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By Bahamut.Bojack 2012-09-25 01:40:42
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Bahamut.Lalafel said: »
Bahamut.Bojack said: »
None of it will matter if I keep crashing like this in Nyzul.

http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-pork-bacon-shortage-20120924,0,5901787.story

Either I just got whooshed bad, or you pasted the wrong link because I really don't understand the reference lol.
 Phoenix.Chomeymatt
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By Phoenix.Chomeymatt 2012-09-25 02:01:36
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Shiva.Keyera said: »
On the order lamp situation:

Had a run earlier today where our order ended up being 2 > 1 > 4 > 3 (#s are what the order would have been pre-patch)

Thoughts are:

It's either completely random each time

-or-

the order is based on server

Hunch leans towards the first, hope leans towards the second.

Anyone with a similar order on Shiva? or are order lamps basically run killers now?

edit: It's completely random, just had another 4 floor and attempted the same combination and it failed.

It's completely random now. Just did 2 runs and had order 3-4 times. There was no pattern in the order at all.
 Gilgamesh.Nynja
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By Gilgamesh.Nynja 2012-09-25 02:54:40
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Once again, what floors were they on, what was the dat order and what was the actual order?

Theres no point dismissing the possibility of a pattern. I was laughed at by "the elite group" when I suggested that abyssea magic procs cant be a random list of 150 spells (before we knew which 8x8 they were, when "I swear I proced it with AM2, I swear frost did it, I swear Tachi:Gekko did it"), and turns out, it wasnt random at all. Its possible that it is random, but theres no harm at all gathering some data for now to see.

Or you can be Nyzul god and clear every run every time with 10 minutes to spare...
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