Coronavirus Death Toll Estimation USA

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Coronavirus death toll estimation USA
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By 2020-04-06 11:21:09
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 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-04-06 11:21:21
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Cerberus.Hideka said: »
Now that being said: Anyone on their deathbeds, should be provided any test vaccines or test treatments that they want to elect into. I'm a firm believer in a persons ability to make a measured and informed choice when they are on deaths door.

Just to touch on that one. If a person can make informed consent while dying and there's a chance to use them (let them) speed up the trial I'm for that too.

But I also can't ignore the very certain reality of it being one step from forging consent and using literal guinea pigs. This is why we can't have nice things and why rules and laws HAVE to be overbearing.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-04-06 11:22:28
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kireek said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Our medical system IS grossly under-prepared. because capitalism first and foremost.

The biggest problem is our reliance on China, we need to bring critical manufacture either back to the home nations or into trusted ally nations. Not only for care products like ventilators and masks but also almost all medications are made in China. This is why world leaders are being "nice" to china right now, because whey all know we need their support and if we annoy them they can cut us all off.

Enough with this utter dependence on China.

It's pathetic to have the worlds most powerful military forces on the face of the planet and be totally reliant on one of your main adversaries in the world for your manufacture, medical supply and technology.

But my capitalism bro. I can't pay American workers and still make as much money as I would using child slaves.
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-06 11:25:08
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kireek said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
Our medical system IS grossly under-prepared. because capitalism first and foremost.

The biggest problem is our reliance on China, we need to bring critical manufacture either back to the home nations or into trusted ally nations. Not only for care products like ventilators and masks but also almost all medications are made in China. This is why world leaders are being "nice" to china right now, because whey all know we need their support and if we annoy them they can cut us all off.

Enough with this utter dependence on China.

It's pathetic to have the worlds most powerful military forces on the face of the planet and be totally reliant on one of your main adversaries in the world for your manufacture, medical supply and technology.


ohohohohoho *** yea.

When trump told critical manufacturing to get out of china last year it was music to my ears. The idea that we manufacture quite literally the most critical components to our countries survival ONLY IN CHINA, is asinine. i dont care how you feel about the orange man, he was right about china every step of the way when it comes to them being a danger to the world.
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By 2020-04-06 12:04:17
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-06 12:27:13
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DirectX said: »
Looking at death rates now is stupid. America needs at least another week or two to be able to compare survival rates to Italy and China.

The same people making these comparisons now are the same people who believed Donald Trump when he said "there's 11 cases here and they'll all recover soon".


ORRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, and humor me here.... its valuable data regardless.

they give us an idea of where we are, vs where they are at differing points in the infection cycle. Italy is about two to three weeks ahead of us in this infection cycle. maybe four weeks.

objectively speaking, italy has Ten times the mortality rate compared to the USA today. if we are doing a good job, that gap will remain about the over the next four weeks.

If we are doing a bad job, that gap will shrink, and eventually become a negative over the next two to four weeks, indicating that we are doing WORSE than italy.


Moresoever it shows places like SOKO, INDIA, and China, who have been fighting the disease MUCH longer than italy has, would indicate that they are either lying, misrepresenting, or doing a job so incredibly good that the whole rest of the world is a gaggle of bumbling retards by comparison.
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By Lakshmi.Leosin 2020-04-06 12:39:27
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Terlet Sangria said: »
I'd love to be proven wrong on any of this! But yeah, I'm sticking by 250k.

I'm going with 269K.
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-06 12:44:38
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Lakshmi.Leosin said: »
Terlet Sangria said: »
I'd love to be proven wrong on any of this! But yeah, I'm sticking by 250k.

I'm going with 269K.
(nice)


its in line with the extreme high end of my projection rates.... but i dont usually do projections of this nature (usually just general business forecasting lol) so i could be off. High end is about 150-200k, middle of the road is about 100-150k, low end is 50-100k
 
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By 2020-04-06 12:47:47
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By Lakshmi.Leosin 2020-04-06 13:04:32
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Cerberus.Hideka said: »
Lakshmi.Leosin said: »
Terlet Sangria said: »
I'd love to be proven wrong on any of this! But yeah, I'm sticking by 250k.

I'm going with 269K.
(nice)


its in line with the extreme high end of my projection rates.... but i dont usually do projections of this nature (usually just general business forecasting lol) so i could be off. High end is about 150-200k, middle of the road is about 100-150k, low end is 50-100k

Hey, shoot for the moon.
Not going to do a "I told you so" dance if its near or over, because that's just deeply saddening that it could be a possibility.
On the bright side, I'll definitely cheer if the death toll reaches nowhere near that.
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-06 13:06:49
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Lakshmi.Leosin said: »
Cerberus.Hideka said: »
Lakshmi.Leosin said: »
Terlet Sangria said: »
I'd love to be proven wrong on any of this! But yeah, I'm sticking by 250k.

I'm going with 269K.
(nice)


its in line with the extreme high end of my projection rates.... but i dont usually do projections of this nature (usually just general business forecasting lol) so i could be off. High end is about 150-200k, middle of the road is about 100-150k, low end is 50-100k

Hey, shoot for the moon.
Not going to do a "I told you so" dance if its near or over, because that's just deeply saddening that it could be a possibility.
On the bright side, I'll definitely cheer if the death toll reaches nowhere near that.


i firmly believe, that given the circumstances, we as a country, are doing fantastic comparatively to what we could be doing. This is probably the most infectious disease we've seen in over a hundred years, and honestly for us to have coped as well as we have with it? thats pretty impressive. Something nobody alive has seen- and we're taking well enough for everything to not just be reduced to fire and brimstone.
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By 2020-04-06 13:25:41
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-06 14:02:51
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DirectX said: »
It's unlikely anyone will suffer as much as Italy, but using that to pose the US in a positive light is intentionally misleading due to factors which you have alluded to (average age, etc.).

Japan, is the only nation really comparable to italy, and its been holdin in there pretty well all things considered. they actually are comparable on median age, and is on the complete opposite end of the spectrum. i've not come across any news of failings by japan, or issues with their testings/protocols.

Heres how japan stacks up:

1. Reported infection Rate (PC) - 0.0023%
2. Reported infection rank: 46
3. Reported Death toll (PC) - 0.00005%
4. Reported Death Rank: 43
5. Testing Rate (PC) - 0.031%
6. Testing Rank: 41th

Japan's population is about double italy, with a FAR better median health, but about the same elderly population.

It may be the weeb in me, but i dont think japan is doing a bad job from everything ive seen and heard. they basically closed down their country right around the same time trump implemented the travel ban- which was likely why they have done so well.

it could be japan is under testing- but the deaths and cases just dont support it. they went isolationist super fast if im not mis-remembering.

DirectX said: »
Comparing countries to other countries is pointless for the most part. What we should be looking at is the state of things, and contemplating what could be done to make it better next time.

I disagree completely and totally- examining the performance, and factors that went into that performance, is absolutely PARAMOUNT to building an adequate response plan for the future. However, I could not agree more, that we need to talk about what we need to do in the future to be prepared now that we understand the risks pandemics present to a globalized world and economy.

DirectX said: »
In the UK we are doing basically no testing per 100k people. In the USA Trump and other unqualified far right conspiracy theorists downplayed it for weeks, months even, and now they will suffer from it. They need to learn to listen to the WHO and... doctors. China needs to ban live animal markets without stringent health and safety standards. etc.

oh dont go getting political on me. we were being productive. now i have no choice but to get political and disagree..

In the usa, trump took action on china right away and was mocked and ridiculed for it- BY THE LEFT. He even wanted to look at closing ALL of our borders, and was mocked and ridiculed for it - BY THE LEFT. The LEFT also downplayed this virus for WEEKS after trump started to get serious over this virus. i can find you a literal ocean of articles criticizing trump for fearmongering. A republican politician said that we cant omit the possiblity that this was due to bad science - that it wasnt a bio weapon gone wrong, or even intentional - that some scientists probably got into something they shouldnt have, and didnt follow the proper protocols, and thats how this happened. He was ridiculed for MONTHS as a conspiracy theorist for saying this. Now evidence is everywhere that this is exactly what had happened - that someone was exposed because the proper protocols were not in place. E.G. the lab accused is a BSL4 lab. Their protocols are of a BSL2 lab.

That however does not excuse the right, trump excluded, from downplaying this at every turn up until we hit critical mass. Trump, gets a pass. hes the POTUS, and has a distinct responsibility to ensure people feel as safe as possible in any given situation. he did down play it, but i argue that ANY president in his position would have.
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By Viciouss 2020-04-06 14:15:09
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Trump didn't "get serious" until March, and the left certainly was not "downplaying" the virus in February or March. In fact, his constant lies about how he "took heat for closing the borders" were factchecked and ruled false. No one was hitting him for closing off China.

Also, Trump's indifference directly led to Republican governors being able to delay taking action as long as possible. Specifically, the governors of Florida, Texas, and Georgia didn't issue shelter in place until April. When asked what took so long, the governor of Florida literally said because Trump was telling me it would be over soon. There still isn't a nationwide shelter in place order, despite Dr. Fauci pushing for one, bewildered while all 50 states haven't locked it down. We still have 8 GOP states holding out, despite the virus infecting all 50 states. So no, Trump doesn't "get a pass."
 
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By 2020-04-06 14:24:13
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-04-06 14:28:02
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It ain't got ***to do with politics.

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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-06 14:31:14
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Viciouss said: »
Trump didn't "get serious" until March, and the left certainly was not "downplaying" the virus in February or March. In fact, his constant lies about how he "took heat for closing the borders" were factchecked and ruled false. No one was hitting him for closing off China.

Also, Trump's indifference directly led to Republican governors being able to delay taking action as long as possible. Specifically, the governors of Florida, Texas, and Georgia didn't issue shelter in place until April. When asked what took so long, the governor of Florida literally said because Trump was telling me it would be over soon. There still isn't a nationwide shelter in place order, despite Dr. Fauci pushing for one, bewildered while all 50 states haven't locked it down. We still have 8 GOP states holding out, despite the virus infecting all 50 states. So no, Trump doesn't "get a pass."


Who fact checked this? i literally watched them do this in real time..... i read through swarms of articles calling him a racist, and a bigot for doing this. he was absolutely hammered all over the place for doing this.


as for the national shelter in place?

Fed V States issue old as the country itself - hell we fought a war over that very issue. The fed is very limited in what it can and cannot do to a state. Hence why sanctuary cities/states exist, and the unbanning of pot in several states has happened. The truth of the matter is- that the fed is the last line of defense in this kind of a crisis. The fed largely only exists in theory, as a unifying body, a defender of the constitution, and security of our borders against incursion. beyond that the federal governments power isnt as crazy as you think. If the states themselves dont to choose to shut down. there is no authority on which the federal government could enforce said shelter in place order, and the would not have the means to enforce it within every state. E.G if texas said eat the fattest part of my ***, theres nothing the fed could or would do about it. at best they'd wall of the state with a blockade, and thats it.
 
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By 2020-04-06 14:34:07
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-06 14:34:41
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
It ain't got ***to do with politics.

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i think he makes a fair point in one regard however. Its regularly parroted that repulbicans are downplaying and treating this with kid gloves. you;d think if the inverse were true- the cities would not be hit nearly as hard as they were.

however i do agree, that these places were always bound to be high due to density. but when i see ny state officials saying 'nah go out and party guys, go enjoy the chinese festivities' (yes this happened), after trump said lock it down, Then i cant help but think its not unrelated.
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By Cerberus.Hideka 2020-04-06 14:35:59
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kireek said: »
If anyone wants to blame Trump they gotta accept that the states have been delegated control over most aspects of dealing with this, the federal gooberment is a backup and nothing more.

So yeah, who controls the states matters. NYC didn't act soon enough. Can post the videos of Dems and NYC officials telling everyone it was a nothingburger just fine and to go along with their lives and take the subway etc.


yes; this infact did happen after trump initiated the travel bans to/from china. NY State officials specifically scoffed at him, and encouraged people to go out an party. On live television.
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-04-06 14:39:06
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People are going to be stupid regardless. NYC is still doing funerals parties weddings.

Trump absolutely made it worse. But it would still be happening anyway. Stupid is an unstoppable force.
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By Viciouss 2020-04-06 15:01:09
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kireek said: »


New York (democrat controlled)
New Jersey (democrat controlled)
Michigan (democrat controlled)
Califnornia (democrat controlled)
Louisiana (democrat controlled)
Florida
Pennsylvania (democrat controlled)
Massachusetts
Illinois (democrat controlled)
Washington (democrat controlled)
Georgia
Texas

This was funny. Thanks for reminding us how little you know about this country.
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By Viciouss 2020-04-06 15:06:25
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Cerberus.Hideka said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
It ain't got ***to do with politics.

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Biggest Cities/Airports


i think he makes a fair point in one regard however. Its regularly parroted that repulbicans are downplaying and treating this with kid gloves. you;d think if the inverse were true- the cities would not be hit nearly as hard as they were.

however i do agree, that these places were always bound to be high due to density. but when i see ny state officials saying 'nah go out and party guys, go enjoy the chinese festivities' (yes this happened), after trump said lock it down, Then i cant help but think its not unrelated.

Trump was saying the same thing at the time. He didn't say "lock it down" in any part of Jan. or Feb. Remember, he was still doing his campaign rallies in February. Thousands of people. You have the clips of him saying "this is their new hoax" at a campaign rally. Pretty sure he was still holding his rallies into March, I know he said he wanted to continue to them as late as March.
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By Garuda.Chanti 2020-04-06 15:06:33
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For the record Florida is controlled by the republicans and Florida power and light.
 
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By Shiva.Thorny 2020-04-06 15:49:03
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DirectX said: »
I don't think it is the President's job to ensure people feel safe, regardless of the reality. It is their job to ensure people are safe, and doing that by listening to experts and allowing them to inform the population of their country.

Without going into whether Trump specifically did what he should've or not, and just speaking generalities:

Ensuring people are safe often requires ensuring they feel safe. When people feel unsafe, it exacerbates supply hoarding and all sorts of other behavior that is problematic when applied across a populace. So, there is often tactical benefit to making people feel safe.
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By 2020-04-06 15:50:27
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By Asura.Eiryl 2020-04-06 15:53:09
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Don't be naive enough to think anything he did or said was for any reason other than keeping his approval rating as high as possible and the stock market falsely inflated.
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By Viciouss 2020-04-06 15:57:49
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
Don't be naive enough to think anything he did or said was for any reason other than keeping his approval rating as high as possible and the stock market falsely inflated.

All of January and February, he was pointing at the scoreboard while people were dying. As long as fewer people died than H1N1, he was winning. That was his only mentality.
 
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